The industry is still anxious. In the future, there will be only two remaining power battery companies in China.

On June 11, 2018, Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as “Ningde Times”) officially landed on the Growth Enterprise Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Just listed, Ningde era will achieve a daily limit, an increase of up to 44%, close the amount of more than 25 billion yuan, the market value of 78.64 billion yuan.

The largest IPO of GEM, the world's largest power battery shipments, and the blessings of many star agencies... With multiple auras, it is not surprising that the Ningde era was listed as a daily limit. As the leading enterprise in the field of power batteries in China, the Ningde era, while landing the stock market to enhance its financial strength, has continued to lower prices in exchange for a larger market share.

Today, Korean companies such as Samsung SDI and LG Chemicals have entered the white list of China's power battery companies. With the entry of more internationally advantageous enterprises after the country's subsidy policy has retreated, China's power battery industry will accelerate its reshuffle. With the exception of the Ningde era and BYD, which already occupy half of the industry, other players will either face death or be marginalized.

The stronger is stronger, the first tier has shaken off opponents

In 2017, the installed capacity of Ningde era reached 10.57 GWh, a sharp increase of 57.24% year-on-year. It surpassed BYD, the “big boss” of the power battery industry, and ranked first in China’s total installed capacity. In addition, the Ningde era also defeated Panasonic and became the global power battery system sales champion.

At the same time, the average sales price of the company's power battery system in 2017 was 1.41 yuan/Wh, a year-on-year decrease of 31.59%, and the price reduction rate was the highest in nearly three years. The exchange of prices for the market has become an important strategy before the subsidies in the Ningde era.

By 2018, the Ningde era is still expanding. In the first quarter of this year, the company’s shipment of power batteries reached 2.2GWh, and its share in the domestic market increased from 30% to 50%. In addition, the Ningde era has also opened up foreign markets, and has entered the world's mainstream passenger car power supply systems such as BMW, Volkswagen, and Nissan.

The second-ranked BYD achieved an installed capacity of 5.66GWh in 2017, a 26.21% decline from the same period last year. Prior to this, BYD's power batteries have been using self-developed models. Due to the decline in the sales of new energy vehicles last year, BYD, which had been ranked first in the power battery industry, was not only surpassed by the Ningde era last year, but was even further widened.

Compared with shipments, the total installed capacity can truly reflect the power battery company's strength. Even if there is a substantial decline, BYD's installed capacity is still far beyond the Ningde era other opponents. In 2017, the total installed capacity of Votema, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and BAK ranked 3 to 5 were only 2.41 GWh, 2.05 GWh and 1.66 GWh, respectively. The Ningde era and BYD have formed the first echelon of power batteries and left their opponents far behind.

Seeing a short board that was only supplied for itself, in the first quarter of 2017, BYD decided to split the power battery business and began to deliver it. BYD expects its power battery business to be completed by the end of 2018 or early 2019, and to achieve an independent listing from 2022 to 2023.

Recently, BYD has announced its plan to build a new battery plant in Qinghai. According to the plan, the products produced by this factory will be delivered to the outside in the future. With the increase in the delivery of BYD's external batteries and the replenishment of ternary lithium battery products, the market share of the two giants in the BYD and Ningde era is expected to continue to expand.

According to the latest data from the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (GGII), in April 2018, the total installed capacity of power batteries in China was about 3.76 GWh, an increase of 304% year-on-year. Among them, BYD installed capacity of 1.34Gwh, accounting for 36%; Ningde era installed capacity of 1.27GWh, accounting for 34%; ranked third Guoxuan Hi-Tech installed capacity of only 0.2GWh, accounting for 5.4%.

Wattma has been "cool", the industry shuffling is in progress

As the country's demand for power battery energy density increases, the market share occupied by the industry's head enterprises is increasing, and the number of power battery related companies in China has dropped from 150 in 2016 to less than 100 in 2017. Especially in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the number of manufacturing enterprises in 2017 decreased by half from 2016.

"Although the reduction in the number of people is already a big adjustment in the outside world, this is only the beginning." Fang Jianhua, former executive president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and executive partner and president of the New Energy Automobile Venture Capital Sub-Fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund, believes The next phase will be eliminated faster.

On March 25, 2018, the door of the headquarters of Walmart, the third-largest company in the power battery industry, was congested by suppliers and demanded money repayment. The scene was chaotic. On April 1st, Wartema’s parent company, Warnevolva, publicly admitted that the company’s debt was overdue. The overdue debt amounted to 1.998 billion yuan. The company faced debt repayment risk and affected daily operations. As of March 31, the company's total debt was up to 22.138 billion yuan. In fact, in the WeChat circle of friends of the Yiou Auto Reporter, there is a supplier of Waterma's suppliers to sell batteries that have been used as payment for the withdrawal of funds.

The fundamental reason that causes Watmar to be on the verge of life and death is that its forecast of subsidy policies is insufficient. The rapid growth of Waterma in the past few years was inseparable from the strong stimulus of new energy vehicle subsidy policies, trying to get subsidies to become the most important “baton” for companies such as Waterma instead of innovation-driven development.

In 2018, with the adjustment of the state subsidy policy, Watmar appeared to be discontented. In the future, financial subsidies will be completely reduced. The market's demand for increased power battery energy density and new energy vehicles' driving range will lead to further increase in market concentration.

At present, the capacity utilization rate of China's power battery companies is less than 30%. However, the low capacity utilization does not mean that the entire industry has experienced delays. The capacity utilization ratios of BYD and Ningde have both reached over 80%. Some of the leading power battery companies have insufficient production capacity and have begun to expand production capacity. At the same time, many SMEs are facing a series of difficulties, such as low-end product positioning, fierce price competition, high receivable accounts, and insufficient capacity utilization.

Overseas giants have entered the domestic market, and only two major domestic giants will survive in the future

In addition to being affected by domestic subsidies, the power battery industry has begun to face challenges from the outside.

Immediately after the Ministry of Finance announced that it would reduce import tariffs on auto parts and auto parts, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance jointly announced the white list for the automotive battery and hydrogen fuel cell industry (the first batch). (Xi'an) Power Battery Co., Ltd., Nanjing Lejin Chemical New Energy Battery Co., Ltd., and Beijing Electronic Control Technology Co., Ltd. are the three Sino-Korea joint ventures.

On April 26 this year, Executive Vice President of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Chairman of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance Dong Yang publicly announced that the "White List Temporary Management Measures for Automotive Power Battery and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Industry" (white list) will be formally implemented. . The white list has made clear requirements for companies, production conditions, technical capabilities, products, and quality assurance capabilities. Acceptances are irregular and are subject to filing at any time.

Obviously, the white list released this time is more targeted than the previously published "Automotive Battery Industry Specification" corporate directory, which is more conducive to promoting the sustainable development of the battery industry.

China is the largest market for new energy vehicles. The country also supports the development of the new energy automotive industry. With Samsung SDI, LG Chem, SK's three South Korea-based JVs in China successfully selected for the white list, I am afraid that other global power battery giants such as Panasonic will also be among the whitelists in the future.

By 2020 at the latest, the Chinese government will liberalize the protection of the domestic battery market. By then, China's power battery companies will face the impact of foreign competitors, the industry will significantly accelerate the reshuffle.

Yiou Auto expects that in addition to the Ningde era and BYD's two giants can rely on volume and technical strength to fight, other domestic battery manufacturers may face the situation of death or marginalization, a large number of small and medium enterprises are likely to be in the industry restructuring wave In China, it was the leader of the industry or the merger of upstream and downstream companies that tried to enter the industry.

Obviously, the lasso on everyone's neck is tightly circled again.