Xinlong statistics show that as of the close of July 7, 63 representative stocks in the automotive sector have risen an average of 12.22% since the valuation of the broader market on June 20 to repair the stock, outperforming the broader market's gain of 6.60% over the same period. Among them, the universal money wave stabilized since June 23, and began to pull up, to close on July 7, an increase of 29.5%.
This trend of the universal cash flow is considered by the colleagues in the stock market as a “right-of-quota market,†and more people attribute it to the expectations of new energy sources and asset injections. In the eyes of more brokers, the stock price of Wanxiang Qianchao is now far away from imaginable stock prices.
Brokers' Citrons
In the eyes of brokerage firms, the universal cash flow has not lacked the reason for rising. In particular, when it published its 2010 annual report, bright performance could not help but make it clear to brokers.
In 2010, Wanxiang Qianchao realized a total operating income of RMB 0.782 billion, an increase of 40.39% year-on-year, and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 426 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.03% and EPS of RMB 0.167, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. And determine a cash dividend of 3 yuan for every 10 shares and a capital grant of 3 shares for every 10 shares.
On March 16th, Guotai Junan stated after the annual report of Wanxiang Qianchao that in the future, the company is expected to become a new energy automobile manufacturer integrating batteries, motors, and electric control, and the first-mover advantage of the company's technology reserves is particularly promising. It is expected that the earnings per share from 2011 to 2013 will be 0.49, 0.6, and 0.71 yuan respectively. Based on the company's new energy business development and injection expectations, the target price is 17 yuan, which corresponds to a 34-fold price-earnings ratio in 2011. As for the rating, Guotai Junan has adopted a "careful increase in holdings" attitude.
At that time, Southwest Securities was a more radical "overweight" view. The reason is that it is optimistic about the steady growth of the high level of the automotive industry in the next few years, and with the market share of Wanxiang Qianchao in the domestic component industry further expanding, it is expected to achieve corresponding growth, and it is estimated that the 2011 earnings per share will be 0.41 yuan. , corresponding to 35 times the price-earnings ratio.
Hongyuan Securities also gave the rating of “overweightâ€. The attraction of Hongyuan is Wanxiang Qianchao’s competitiveness in the parts and components business. In the future, with the continuous expansion of production capacity such as constant-speed drive shafts, and new energy vehicles, With the gradual promotion, the company's performance will be adequately supported.
Ping An Securities' "recommendation" and Orient Securities' "buy" ratings all interpret the broker's enthusiasm for the universal wave of money.
Unfortunately, the bright performance and the good faith of the brokers have not yet made the sun shine. In contrast, from the beginning of March to May, it has brought haze to the investors. Until the ex-dividend of interest on May 25, the company gradually showed a steady state.
The universal money tide is not the only one. Most auto parts stocks began to decline in mid-March. At that time, many brokers had started to look at the auto parts industry.
The representative is Guojin Securities, which clearly stated in its report on March 27 that the valuation of the current auto segment is still relatively low and predicts that the growth of automobile sales in the second quarter will rebound to about 14%. As a result, there is an opportunity for valuation recovery in the entire automotive segment. At the same time, there are great expectations for the parts export industry.
However, the brokerage firms had imagined that the market was more than two months behind their expectations. Most companies gradually began to stabilize at the end of May.
Fill in rights market
The rising tide of universal money has caused the industry to see some laws. "Red Weekly" published an analysis article, said that 10 to send 5 or less stocks during the rally although there is a similar universal money-filling rights market, in the case of a rebound, for the choice of dividend shares, investors should be the preferred object of transfer Larger stocks, with the full listing of bonus stocks sent in recent days, the current speculation in the transfer of shares has shifted from grab power to fill the right.
The universal wave of money after ex-rights and ex-dividend leaves investors with more room for imagination, and BYD's catalysts cannot be missed. When it first appeared in the A-share market and performed a high-profile performance, the concept stocks related to lithium batteries and new energy also rose in the A-share market, not only for Yiwei Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Lifan Lithium. With a collective limit, auto companies such as Foton Motors, FAW Car, and Wanxiang Qianchao also rose to the top of the list.
This is a new energy source sparked by BYD, and as BYD's stock price rises, the market continues and those smart funds have long been involved.
The first quarterly report of Wanxiang Qianchao indicated that among the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in the first quarter, the National Social Security Fund 107 combined holding 369.17 million shares, holding a total of 13.7374 million shares; Bank of China - Huaxia Securities Investment Fund increased 323.73 million shares were held, holding a total of 1223.19 million shares.
There were also many new buyers, with 10,148,800 new shares of China National Aircraft Asset Management Co., Ltd., and a new 100.893 million new shares of China Growth Securities Investment Fund, and a new 913.40 million new shares of the Bank of China-Crestful Open Securities Investment Fund. Yifangda Shenzhen Securities Co., Ltd. has 100,100,100 new shares of open-ended index securities investment funds. Of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, only the Bank of Communications-Huaxia Blue Chip Core Mixed Securities Investment Fund reduced its holdings by 450,000 shares.
Of course, the fundamentals of new energy are also very important factors for these funds. Statistics from Wandian show that, at the end of the first quarter of 2011, the average diluted earnings per share of new energy auto companies was 0.2528 yuan, the average net assets per share was 5.3315 yuan, and the net cash flow from economic activities per share was 0.0035 yuan. At 4.53%, the net profit of the shareholders of the parent company was 788,469,900 yuan, a slight decrease of 2.95% year-on-year. The current industry valuation is moderate, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of only 19.50 times.
Core business transfer
The transfer of new energy as the core business is also a major event.
In December 2010, Wanxiang Qianchao announced that it plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary - Wanxiang Qianchao Chongqing Parts Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chongqing Parts"), and implements an annual output of 8.4 million equal-speed drive shafts. Part of the expansion plan for fixed assets investment projects.
Among them, 3 million pieces of constant velocity drive shaft product expansion plans will be implemented by Chongqing components, with a total planned investment of 415 million yuan. The entire investment will be completed in 2013, and the first phase will be implemented with 1.2 million production capacities. The implementation will be completed before the end of 2011. It is expected that after the first phase of production, the company will achieve revenue of 300 million yuan and a new profit of 37.24 million yuan, and the project's return on net assets will be no less than 20%.
Now, according to research by Founder Securities, there are currently only three manufacturing companies in the country, including the company with production capacity of more than 1 million, including Wanxiang Qianchao, Shanghai Natiefu, and Delphi Shakino Lingyun. After Wanxiang Qianchao's constant-speed drive shaft investment project is completed and put into production, the production capacity will be expanded from 2.8 million to 10 million.
In terms of channels, the company has successfully developed a constant-speed drive shaft assembly for most domestic models, and has 21 distribution centers nationwide, with 258 sales agencies and more than 3,000 sales outlets. And it has provided supporting parts and components for domestic auto companies such as Chery, BYD, Haima, Chang'an, Hafei, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW Car. Founder Securities predicts that it will occupy 20% of the domestic constant speed drive shaft assembly market share in the future.
While expanding the domestic market, Wanxiang Qianchao has not slowed down the pace of the international market. Nearly 200 foreign market products have been developed and exported to the United States, Australia, Singapore, Turkey, Israel, South America, Africa and other countries and regions. As early as the end of 2006, the company signed cooperation agreements with South Korea's Hyundai Wia and South America GM. It is planned that in 2011 two cooperative projects will each form 3.2 million and 1 million annual supporting quantities. "After 2012, the total supporting demand for universal drive axle assembly for Wanxiang Qianchao will exceed 5.4 million sticks/year." Founder Securities is extremely optimistic about its prospects.
In the aspect of new energy development, Wanxiang Qianchao has also found a way of its own: All new investment projects in the future must focus on investment in new energy auto parts and components; where existing products do not meet future new energy vehicles For supporting needs, we must gradually eliminate them.
This path of access to new energy, under the support of the state's policies, has made few twists and turns and made some more smooth roads.
The “12th Five-year Development Plan for Beijing Automotive Industry†proposed by the Beijing Automotive Industry Association has now passed the review of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology.
According to the plan, in 2015, Beijing's pure electric vehicles will have a capacity of 100,000 vehicles, and will mainly be passenger vehicles. Once this proposal is implemented, it may set off a private purchase of new energy vehicles in the Beijing area. At the same time, Beijing New Energy Automobile is expected to enjoy special offers that are not tils, unlimited lines, and no taxes.
Today, China has expanded the pilot cities of new energy vehicles to 25 cities, and five cities have entered private pilots to purchase new energy vehicles. According to the promotion plans of various cities, the number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 25,000 by 2012. It is expected to reach nearly 200,000 vehicles by 2015.
This market is not only for the universal cash flow, but also for any car company in the new energy industry.
Asset injection expectations
Recently, the industry has been repeatedly informed of the timetable for the injection of assets into the universal cash flow. Although this point has not been affirmed by the universal cash flow, the rise in its share price has caused many people to feel that the asset injection is approaching. CITIC has said that once the Group initiates injection of new energy vehicle assets or has formed a relatively clear injection of expectations, it will significantly increase the valuation of listed companies.
In fact, the smell of gunpowder injected by assets has already come down to the universal cash flow. On December 29, 2010, the company signed the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement on the Electric Vehicle Industry with Wanxiang Group and Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Company.
According to the agreement, Wanxiang Group Co., Ltd. and Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. promised that the auto parts products developed and produced by Wanxiang Qianchao will be the preferred or exclusive supplier of auto parts procurement for Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd.; Co., Ltd. will use its own long-term development and accumulation of technical foundation, to give full support to Wanxiang Qianchao to develop new energy auto parts and components projects to provide technical and market operations.
In addition to the electric vehicle business itself, the agreement also confesses that electric vehicle assets will be injected into the company through three channels. First, when the future conditions are ripe, Wanxiang Group Company agrees to transfer part of the equity ownership of Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. to the company; secondly, the company will invest in the company's share of Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. in the form of capital increase; It is also possible to adopt a combination of equity transfer and capital increase.
Prior to the signing of the agreement, CITIC Securities judged in its report in April 2010 that Wanxiang Group would be more likely to use the new lithium battery business of large foreign component manufacturers for reference and consider potential connected transactions and continuous large-scale capital investment requirements. Energy injection into listed companies.
Let's take a look at Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., which was established in 2002 and is mainly dedicated to the research, development, and application of new automotive energy technologies. The current research and development scope involves high-power, high-energy polymer lithium-ion power batteries, motor technology and electronic control systems. . It is expected that in 2012, 800 million Ah lithium-ion battery production capacity and 250,000 vehicle production bases will be built.
What's more, the battery industry of Wanxiang Electric Vehicles has obvious advantages in technology and channels. At present, most of the batteries of the State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Exchange Station use universal batteries, and the operation results are also good. The obvious geographical advantage of Wanxiang Group is undoubtedly revealed. The company also signed an agreement with Ener1 in the United States to establish a fully automated production base for batteries and battery systems. By the end of 2011, it will produce 300 million hr batteries and 40,000 sets of battery pack systems for electric vehicles.
It is undeniable that the technology of new energy vehicles conforms to the direction of national industrial development and is one of the strategic industries supported by the country. All this has made it possible for Southwest Securities to inject its assets into the future. According to its view, if Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Technology is progressing smoothly and successfully injected into listed companies, it will become another growth point for the company in addition to the traditional components business, and the market prospect cannot be ignored.
This trend of the universal cash flow is considered by the colleagues in the stock market as a “right-of-quota market,†and more people attribute it to the expectations of new energy sources and asset injections. In the eyes of more brokers, the stock price of Wanxiang Qianchao is now far away from imaginable stock prices.
Brokers' Citrons
In the eyes of brokerage firms, the universal cash flow has not lacked the reason for rising. In particular, when it published its 2010 annual report, bright performance could not help but make it clear to brokers.
In 2010, Wanxiang Qianchao realized a total operating income of RMB 0.782 billion, an increase of 40.39% year-on-year, and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 426 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.03% and EPS of RMB 0.167, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. And determine a cash dividend of 3 yuan for every 10 shares and a capital grant of 3 shares for every 10 shares.
On March 16th, Guotai Junan stated after the annual report of Wanxiang Qianchao that in the future, the company is expected to become a new energy automobile manufacturer integrating batteries, motors, and electric control, and the first-mover advantage of the company's technology reserves is particularly promising. It is expected that the earnings per share from 2011 to 2013 will be 0.49, 0.6, and 0.71 yuan respectively. Based on the company's new energy business development and injection expectations, the target price is 17 yuan, which corresponds to a 34-fold price-earnings ratio in 2011. As for the rating, Guotai Junan has adopted a "careful increase in holdings" attitude.
At that time, Southwest Securities was a more radical "overweight" view. The reason is that it is optimistic about the steady growth of the high level of the automotive industry in the next few years, and with the market share of Wanxiang Qianchao in the domestic component industry further expanding, it is expected to achieve corresponding growth, and it is estimated that the 2011 earnings per share will be 0.41 yuan. , corresponding to 35 times the price-earnings ratio.
Hongyuan Securities also gave the rating of “overweightâ€. The attraction of Hongyuan is Wanxiang Qianchao’s competitiveness in the parts and components business. In the future, with the continuous expansion of production capacity such as constant-speed drive shafts, and new energy vehicles, With the gradual promotion, the company's performance will be adequately supported.
Ping An Securities' "recommendation" and Orient Securities' "buy" ratings all interpret the broker's enthusiasm for the universal wave of money.
Unfortunately, the bright performance and the good faith of the brokers have not yet made the sun shine. In contrast, from the beginning of March to May, it has brought haze to the investors. Until the ex-dividend of interest on May 25, the company gradually showed a steady state.
The universal money tide is not the only one. Most auto parts stocks began to decline in mid-March. At that time, many brokers had started to look at the auto parts industry.
The representative is Guojin Securities, which clearly stated in its report on March 27 that the valuation of the current auto segment is still relatively low and predicts that the growth of automobile sales in the second quarter will rebound to about 14%. As a result, there is an opportunity for valuation recovery in the entire automotive segment. At the same time, there are great expectations for the parts export industry.
However, the brokerage firms had imagined that the market was more than two months behind their expectations. Most companies gradually began to stabilize at the end of May.
Fill in rights market
The rising tide of universal money has caused the industry to see some laws. "Red Weekly" published an analysis article, said that 10 to send 5 or less stocks during the rally although there is a similar universal money-filling rights market, in the case of a rebound, for the choice of dividend shares, investors should be the preferred object of transfer Larger stocks, with the full listing of bonus stocks sent in recent days, the current speculation in the transfer of shares has shifted from grab power to fill the right.
The universal wave of money after ex-rights and ex-dividend leaves investors with more room for imagination, and BYD's catalysts cannot be missed. When it first appeared in the A-share market and performed a high-profile performance, the concept stocks related to lithium batteries and new energy also rose in the A-share market, not only for Yiwei Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Lifan Lithium. With a collective limit, auto companies such as Foton Motors, FAW Car, and Wanxiang Qianchao also rose to the top of the list.
This is a new energy source sparked by BYD, and as BYD's stock price rises, the market continues and those smart funds have long been involved.
The first quarterly report of Wanxiang Qianchao indicated that among the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in the first quarter, the National Social Security Fund 107 combined holding 369.17 million shares, holding a total of 13.7374 million shares; Bank of China - Huaxia Securities Investment Fund increased 323.73 million shares were held, holding a total of 1223.19 million shares.
There were also many new buyers, with 10,148,800 new shares of China National Aircraft Asset Management Co., Ltd., and a new 100.893 million new shares of China Growth Securities Investment Fund, and a new 913.40 million new shares of the Bank of China-Crestful Open Securities Investment Fund. Yifangda Shenzhen Securities Co., Ltd. has 100,100,100 new shares of open-ended index securities investment funds. Of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, only the Bank of Communications-Huaxia Blue Chip Core Mixed Securities Investment Fund reduced its holdings by 450,000 shares.
Of course, the fundamentals of new energy are also very important factors for these funds. Statistics from Wandian show that, at the end of the first quarter of 2011, the average diluted earnings per share of new energy auto companies was 0.2528 yuan, the average net assets per share was 5.3315 yuan, and the net cash flow from economic activities per share was 0.0035 yuan. At 4.53%, the net profit of the shareholders of the parent company was 788,469,900 yuan, a slight decrease of 2.95% year-on-year. The current industry valuation is moderate, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of only 19.50 times.
Core business transfer
The transfer of new energy as the core business is also a major event.
In December 2010, Wanxiang Qianchao announced that it plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary - Wanxiang Qianchao Chongqing Parts Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chongqing Parts"), and implements an annual output of 8.4 million equal-speed drive shafts. Part of the expansion plan for fixed assets investment projects.
Among them, 3 million pieces of constant velocity drive shaft product expansion plans will be implemented by Chongqing components, with a total planned investment of 415 million yuan. The entire investment will be completed in 2013, and the first phase will be implemented with 1.2 million production capacities. The implementation will be completed before the end of 2011. It is expected that after the first phase of production, the company will achieve revenue of 300 million yuan and a new profit of 37.24 million yuan, and the project's return on net assets will be no less than 20%.
Now, according to research by Founder Securities, there are currently only three manufacturing companies in the country, including the company with production capacity of more than 1 million, including Wanxiang Qianchao, Shanghai Natiefu, and Delphi Shakino Lingyun. After Wanxiang Qianchao's constant-speed drive shaft investment project is completed and put into production, the production capacity will be expanded from 2.8 million to 10 million.
In terms of channels, the company has successfully developed a constant-speed drive shaft assembly for most domestic models, and has 21 distribution centers nationwide, with 258 sales agencies and more than 3,000 sales outlets. And it has provided supporting parts and components for domestic auto companies such as Chery, BYD, Haima, Chang'an, Hafei, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW Car. Founder Securities predicts that it will occupy 20% of the domestic constant speed drive shaft assembly market share in the future.
While expanding the domestic market, Wanxiang Qianchao has not slowed down the pace of the international market. Nearly 200 foreign market products have been developed and exported to the United States, Australia, Singapore, Turkey, Israel, South America, Africa and other countries and regions. As early as the end of 2006, the company signed cooperation agreements with South Korea's Hyundai Wia and South America GM. It is planned that in 2011 two cooperative projects will each form 3.2 million and 1 million annual supporting quantities. "After 2012, the total supporting demand for universal drive axle assembly for Wanxiang Qianchao will exceed 5.4 million sticks/year." Founder Securities is extremely optimistic about its prospects.
In the aspect of new energy development, Wanxiang Qianchao has also found a way of its own: All new investment projects in the future must focus on investment in new energy auto parts and components; where existing products do not meet future new energy vehicles For supporting needs, we must gradually eliminate them.
This path of access to new energy, under the support of the state's policies, has made few twists and turns and made some more smooth roads.
The “12th Five-year Development Plan for Beijing Automotive Industry†proposed by the Beijing Automotive Industry Association has now passed the review of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology.
According to the plan, in 2015, Beijing's pure electric vehicles will have a capacity of 100,000 vehicles, and will mainly be passenger vehicles. Once this proposal is implemented, it may set off a private purchase of new energy vehicles in the Beijing area. At the same time, Beijing New Energy Automobile is expected to enjoy special offers that are not tils, unlimited lines, and no taxes.
Today, China has expanded the pilot cities of new energy vehicles to 25 cities, and five cities have entered private pilots to purchase new energy vehicles. According to the promotion plans of various cities, the number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 25,000 by 2012. It is expected to reach nearly 200,000 vehicles by 2015.
This market is not only for the universal cash flow, but also for any car company in the new energy industry.
Asset injection expectations
Recently, the industry has been repeatedly informed of the timetable for the injection of assets into the universal cash flow. Although this point has not been affirmed by the universal cash flow, the rise in its share price has caused many people to feel that the asset injection is approaching. CITIC has said that once the Group initiates injection of new energy vehicle assets or has formed a relatively clear injection of expectations, it will significantly increase the valuation of listed companies.
In fact, the smell of gunpowder injected by assets has already come down to the universal cash flow. On December 29, 2010, the company signed the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement on the Electric Vehicle Industry with Wanxiang Group and Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Company.
According to the agreement, Wanxiang Group Co., Ltd. and Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. promised that the auto parts products developed and produced by Wanxiang Qianchao will be the preferred or exclusive supplier of auto parts procurement for Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd.; Co., Ltd. will use its own long-term development and accumulation of technical foundation, to give full support to Wanxiang Qianchao to develop new energy auto parts and components projects to provide technical and market operations.
In addition to the electric vehicle business itself, the agreement also confesses that electric vehicle assets will be injected into the company through three channels. First, when the future conditions are ripe, Wanxiang Group Company agrees to transfer part of the equity ownership of Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. to the company; secondly, the company will invest in the company's share of Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. in the form of capital increase; It is also possible to adopt a combination of equity transfer and capital increase.
Prior to the signing of the agreement, CITIC Securities judged in its report in April 2010 that Wanxiang Group would be more likely to use the new lithium battery business of large foreign component manufacturers for reference and consider potential connected transactions and continuous large-scale capital investment requirements. Energy injection into listed companies.
Let's take a look at Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., which was established in 2002 and is mainly dedicated to the research, development, and application of new automotive energy technologies. The current research and development scope involves high-power, high-energy polymer lithium-ion power batteries, motor technology and electronic control systems. . It is expected that in 2012, 800 million Ah lithium-ion battery production capacity and 250,000 vehicle production bases will be built.
What's more, the battery industry of Wanxiang Electric Vehicles has obvious advantages in technology and channels. At present, most of the batteries of the State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Exchange Station use universal batteries, and the operation results are also good. The obvious geographical advantage of Wanxiang Group is undoubtedly revealed. The company also signed an agreement with Ener1 in the United States to establish a fully automated production base for batteries and battery systems. By the end of 2011, it will produce 300 million hr batteries and 40,000 sets of battery pack systems for electric vehicles.
It is undeniable that the technology of new energy vehicles conforms to the direction of national industrial development and is one of the strategic industries supported by the country. All this has made it possible for Southwest Securities to inject its assets into the future. According to its view, if Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Technology is progressing smoothly and successfully injected into listed companies, it will become another growth point for the company in addition to the traditional components business, and the market prospect cannot be ignored.
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