On October 12, the Russian media said that from 1970 to 2012, Russia’s per capita national income growth was first of all inflationary, and income distribution was tilted toward the favorable direction of the wealthy. Not long after, on the 18th, Moody's, one of the three major international rating agencies, downgraded Russia's debt rating from BAA1 to BAA2, just one step away from the garbage level, and its outlook is negative. The downgrade of the rating reflects both the plight of the Russian economy and the negative impact on the Russian economy, which puts it at great test. So, as the LED emerging market that the media is eagerly awaiting, how will the overall economic weakness affect it? Domestic LED market Blue Ocean: Russian LED market 90 for foreign products According to the recently released "China LED lighting products export quarterly analysis report (2014Q2)" (hereinafter referred to as the report), in the second quarter of 2014, the BRICS countries represented by Russia It has become the new blue ocean for the export of LED lighting products in China. According to the data of the LED lamp assembly business plan provided by professional institutions, in 2010 the Russian LED product market share of more than 90 is occupied by foreign producers such as Cree, Osram, Nichia. Russia's largest LED manufacturers include Svetlana Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., Proton AG, and Smart Light Co., Ltd. It is understood that the production of LED products in Russia is slow. Although the state has increased its support within the framework of the economic modernization plan, LED business is difficult to develop in Russia, mainly because of the lack of infrastructure and technical foundation for high-tech production. At the same time, the proportion of imports of energy-saving products has risen sharply in Russia, most of which are imported through illegal channels, and their quality does not meet international standards. The proportion of high-quality products does not exceed 20% of all imported lamps. At present, the products of domestic LED companies 80 are mainly exported. Under the influence of the European economic crisis and the weak US economic recovery, orders for LED lighting companies have been decreasing since the second half of last year. According to the information conveyed at the 111th Canton Fair held in 2012, it is very common for domestic LED companies to drop orders from Europe and the United States by 30% from the beginning of the year. Declining orders directly led to a decline in revenue for many companies. In this context, some insiders believe that the export situation of domestic LED lighting companies may be even worse in the second half of this year. To solve this dilemma, in addition to further expanding domestic demand, it is an inevitable choice to seize the emerging market. Then many people began to focus on the Russian country of this high-quality product with a weight not exceeding 20% ​​of all imported lamps. In the past seven years, Russia's annual economic growth rate has remained at 6-7. The active economic environment has driven the construction industry to flourish, and the Russian lighting market has also been strongly promoted. The demand for outdoor and indoor lighting appliances has been boosted. Significant growth, the import of lighting products increased significantly. In addition, the "Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency Improvement Law" adopted by the Russian State Duma has also made many LED companies very interested in the Russian market. The law stipulates that from January 1, 2013, Russia will ban the production and sale of incandescent lamps of more than 75 watts; from 2014, it is prohibited to produce and sell incandescent lamps of more than 25 watts. This means that Russia will become a market with huge demand for LED lighting facilities in the future. Statistics show that the consumption of incandescent lamps in the Russian market in the past few years has remained at 800 million/year. Last year, sales of incandescent lamps fell sharply, with only 500 million sold. Sales of fluorescent lamps continued to rise, with annual sales reaching 200 million. Although the market penetration of LED lighting products is only 4 (180 million US dollars), growth is beginning to show. According to Philips' forecast, the demand for Russian lighting market will grow at a rate of 48 per year in the next few years. LED lighting products are expected to reach the market scale of 1 billion US dollars in 2015, and the international market share will also be 5 Position nearby. The data shows that in 2013, the export value of China's LED lighting products to Russia was US$227 million, an increase of 260% over the same period of last year. In 2014, the export value in the first half of 2014 was only US$327 million, a year-on-year increase of 571. Russia jumped at the speed of the rocket. In China's second largest export market, China's LED lighting products accounted for about 9 of the total amount of exports, and in the BRICS countries where China's LED lighting products are exported, its market share is as high as about 75. The report shows that in the past two years The export situation of LED lighting products in China has been rising steadily, and the export of BRICS countries has maintained super high-speed growth. In 2013, the export value of China's LED lighting products was about US$5.5 billion, of which US$390 million was exported to the BRICS countries. In the first half of 2014, the export value of LED lighting products in China was about US$4.35 billion, of which about 440 million were exported to the BRICS countries. The US dollar increased by 350% year-on-year. According to the relevant person in charge of the alliance, as Russia encourages the implementation of plans for energy-saving products such as LED lighting, the country has great market space, and Russia will become a new blue ocean for China's LED lighting exports. The impact of the energy economy on the Russian LED market under EU sanctions On the 18th, Moody's, one of the three major international rating agencies, downgraded Russia's debt rating from BAA1 to BAA2, just one step away from the garbage level, and its outlook is negative. The downgrade of the rating reflects both the plight of the Russian economy and the negative impact on the Russian economy, which puts it at great test. In addition, the instability of the peripheral economy and the changes in supply and demand have caused international oil prices to remain in a downward trajectory in recent months. Crude oil prices have fallen by about 25 since their peak in June. In this case, it is also difficult for the ruble to contain the downward trend that has already begun. In the past three months, the ruble has fallen to 13 and the ruble has fallen by 19 this year, which is higher than other currencies. The Russian central bank has sold a large amount of foreign exchange reserves to support the ruble. The country’s foreign exchange reserves have been reduced by 11. This year, Russia reported that it only spent $13 billion in foreign exchange reserves this month to slow down the weakness of the ruble and reduce Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. The four-year low was $453 billion. For the current state of the Russian economy, former Russian Finance Minister Kudrin said that the sanctions will cause Russia to lose at least 200 billion US dollars in the next three years. And Russian Economic Development Minister Alexei. Ulyukayev said a week ago that it would be economically unreasonable for rating agencies to downgrade Russia’s sovereign credit rating. He pointed out that as of now Russia's total external debt is less than 3% of GDP, while the total national debt is 11% of GDP, which is one of the countries with the lowest debt level in the world. If you wish, these debts can be paid off within one year. Some analysts believe that when the oil price is maintained between 80 and 90 US dollars per barrel, the Russian economy can still be two years. Even in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Russia’s budget was based on oil prices of 40 to 50 US dollars per barrel. Russia successfully escaped the challenge. Of course, Russia had huge foreign exchange reserves and national social security funds. The proportion of GDP is as high as 20. But the analysis also believes that in the long run, sustained low oil prices remain a huge challenge for the Russian government. In Russia's latest estimate of the 2015-2017 budget draft, the assumption of oil price is at $100, and the annual economic growth is assumed to be 2.6. However, the price of oil falling from $100 per barrel to $80 per barrel will cause GDP to fall by two. Percentage points. In the absence of Western sanctions, these are not a big problem for Russia because Russia can finance from international markets, and Russian state-owned banks and companies can refinance their foreign debt. The current situation is different. In the face of economic dilemmas, the Russian government needs to choose to reduce spending or increase taxes, but this is not good news for economic growth. In fact, the rapid decline of the Russian economy this year has been indisputable. The World Bank estimates that Russia’s economic growth rate in 2014 was only 0.5, and it was only 0.3 in 2015. The International Monetary Fund [microblogging] expects Russia’s growth rate to be 0.5 next year. Bloomberg’s survey results show that analysts generally expect The Russian economy grew by only 0.3 in 2014, which will be the worst performance after the 2009 recession. More pessimists expect Russia to fall into recession this year and continue to shrink in the next two years. The more pessimistic Moody's also expects that Russia will fall into recession again next year, and then turn to recession after this year's growth of 0.5. In this case, will the blue ocean of LED still be stable? In fact, in recent years, more and more industry giants have felt that Russia is a huge market, and the industrial war is on the verge. These industry giants include Philips and NVC. Among them, the recent Russian market has carried out detailed analysis, and believes that the Russian market currently has three major characteristics. The Russian fluorescent lamp market has a large amount of reserves, but the construction of recycling facilities is backward. In order to solve the problem of heavy metal lead and mercury in the waste lamp glass, it is necessary to establish a corresponding processing center according to the capacity to effectively recover mercury, glass and metal in the waste lamp. Due to the lack of funds, the sales growth of its products is far greater than the growth rate of recycling. In the long run, environmental issues will become a bottleneck to curb the development of fluorescent lighting products. Profit-seeking becomes the embarrassment of the market. Major manufacturers have fought for the lucrative professional lighting market, but they have no time to consider the mass energy-saving lighting market. At the same time, the mass market is not ready to transform into energy-saving technologies. The price of Russian LED lighting products is too high. The LED lamps that meet the standards are 50 times more expensive than ordinary incandescent lamps and 10-15 times more expensive than fluorescent lamps. It is difficult to popularize in the home market. Dealers are focusing more on public procurement projects for energy efficient lighting. The supply is mainly for industrial users such as railways, chemicals, electric oil, warehousing and public buildings. For example, Oswego Lanna Optoelectronics provided more than 100 energy-saving lighting equipment projects for Russian railway companies. Philips' product users are large companies such as Lukoil, audiovisual stores, department stores and steel companies. Russian consumers generally lack the intrinsic motivation to purchase energy-saving products. Electricity prices in Russia are much cheaper than those in the EU, and energy-saving products can only show economics in a few years. Because the price of LED is green for the current weak economy, consumers are more inclined to low-priced traditional lighting products in the choice of purchasing intentions. Moreover, for the four words of Chinese manufacturing, Russian consumers are also love and hate. As the blue ocean, there will be a large number of different levels of products, and the products of the fish are mixed. Lev, president of Russia's OPTOGAN company, said earlier that the energy-saving lamp products such as fluorescent and LED manufactured in China have already occupied 60 market share in Russia. The biggest problem of products is poor quality, non-compliance with relevant technical standards and environmental protection requirements, and use. Low life expectancy and easy damage to the human body. In addition, some of the lesser-known companies in China have no sales performance and popularity, but are keen to lobby the local government to participate in government procurement in the country and region, resulting in Chinese products entering the Russian market. The downward trend of the Russian economy, how will it affect the LED investors who are going to Russia? Since 2010, China has been Russia’s largest trading partner, and Russia ranks 9th among China’s major trading partners. The country’s trade has developed steadily. Last year, Russia-China trade totaled 88.9 billion U.S. dollars, with a growth rate of 1.6. In the first half of this year, total trade volume increased by 3 to reach 43 billion U.S. dollars. At the end of May this year, President Putin and President Xi Jinping met in Shanghai. The two heads of state signed a joint statement, which opened up a new path for the development of Russia-China economic and trade relations. Moreover, the Russian LED industry developed rapidly last year with a growth rate of 250, of which LED lighting accounted for 10% of the Russian lighting industry. According to the data, in the lighting market in 2013, the sales volume of Russian LED bulbs was 1 billion, and the sales amount was 40 billion rubles. As the Russian government introduced a series of measures to promote energy-saving light sources, it is expected that by 2016, LED lighting will account for about 35% of the Russian lighting industry. With Russia's accession to the WTO, the ban on incandescent lamps was released. Driven by the Sochi Winter Olympics this year and the 2018 World Cup, Russia's demand for LED lighting facilities is enormous. Among the lighting products, China has always been Russia's largest supplier. Therefore, the Russian side welcomes the powerful Guangdong enterprises to participate in LED engineering projects such as public institutions in Russia and the CIS countries, large industrial and mining enterprises, and sports venues. The original market prospects are very good, and Russia has also proposed a large number of preferential policies for entrepreneurs who set up factories in the local area. But this year, in response to inflation risks, the devaluation of the ruble and the increasingly tense geopolitical situation, the Russian central bank has raised the benchmark interest rate to 8 on three occasions, but
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