Benefiting from the country's support for new energy vehicles, the price of lithium carbonate, the raw material for the upstream lithium battery, has been rising steadily. Since 2016, it has risen by 24%, and has continuously refreshed history. At the same time, companies related to raw materials such as lithium carbonate have earned enough money, and some companies' 2016 first-quarter results are expected to increase 8-9 times year-on-year (compared to the same period last year).
Analysts in the industry commented on the Morning Post reporter that at present, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate is already huge under the condition that the production and sales of new energy vehicles have not yet been fully released. Although many companies have entered the lithium carbonate mining market, it is difficult to release the capacity in the short term. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will continue to rise this year, breaking 180,000 yuan / ton should not be a problem, and may even exceed 200,000 yuan / ton.
Lithium carbonate producer profits increase 8 times
Prices have risen by 230% since 2015
According to data from the Commodity Data Business Group, the price of lithium carbonate rose from 40,000 yuan/ton in early 2015 to about 100,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2015, and the current price has risen to about 130,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative increase of nearly 230%.
Zhao Li, a lithium-carbonate industry analyst at the business club, said that according to its understanding, the current shipments of lithium carbonate manufacturers in April and May have basically been booked. In the first half of the year, manufacturers have no more goods to sell, and battery-grade lithium carbonate futures prices have already arrived. 150000 yuan / ton, and some retailers even rose to 180,000 yuan / ton. Some high-quality raw material manufacturers have been reluctant to come out for quotations, and there have been phenomena of stock picking and inventory.
This makes some lithium battery manufacturers unbearable, and even unable to start due to shortage of supplies.
In contrast, most upstream producers of lithium carbonate and other materials have "smiled so much as they laughed".
As the largest lithium carbonate producer in China, Tianqi Lithium (002466) 2015 performance report showed that in 2015 the company achieved total operating revenue of 1.87 billion yuan, an increase of 31.37% over the previous year; and total profit of 520 million yuan, an increase from the same period last year. 58.78%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 248 million yuan, an increase of 89.93% year-on-year. Its latest release of 2016 first-quarter performance forecast shows that from January to March, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 274 million to 288 million yuan, an increase of 819.39% -866.42% year on year, compared with net profit of 29.77 million yuan in the same period last year.
Tianqi Lithium stated that during the reporting period, the company's downstream lithium battery market demand has steadily increased, and the lithium battery industry's upstream battery material industry has driven the rapid growth in demand for lithium chemical products. The increase in market demand led to a year-on-year increase in the sales price and sales volume of Tianqi Lithium battery-grade lithium carbonate products, which resulted in a substantial year-on-year increase in operating revenue and a substantial increase in gross profit margin for product sales.
There are also many companies that produce raw materials such as lithium carbonate, which also have a substantial increase in net profit. According to the results report issued by Haofeng Lithium (002460), the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2015 was 121 million yuan, an increase of 41.59% year-on-year.
According to reports, roughly 40 of the nearly 40 lithium battery listed companies have issued 2015 annual reports, of which 19 have achieved year-on-year growth in net profit.
This year, the demand gap is 20,000-30,000 tons of lithium carbonate price or over 200,000 yuan / ton.
Zhao Li told reporters that lithium carbonate has started to rise in price since 2014, but the rate is not significant. Previously, lithium carbonate has been underestimated, so price increases are normal reactions. However, at the end of 2015, the sudden increase was far more than expected, and many of them suspected of taking the opportunity to speculate, but the main factor was the national policy support for new energy vehicles.
Lithium carbonate is one of the basic raw materials for manufacturing lithium batteries, and the most important cathode material for lithium batteries is a synthetic material prepared from lithium carbonate. As the core material of new energy vehicles, the price of lithium and its main raw material, lithium carbonate, is closely related to the development of new energy vehicles.
In the first half of 2015, the state and local governments have successively introduced a series of new energy support and supporting policies. The dramatic increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles has led to the development of the entire lithium-electricity industry. The demand for upstream materials has increased dramatically. This has led to higher prices for lithium ore, lithium carbonate and other products.
Last year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 300,000 vehicles. With the encouragement of the development of new energy vehicles industry in the country and the participation of more enterprises, it is expected that the scale of production and sales in 2016 will more than double.
Therefore, there is a large gap in the supply of materials such as lithium carbonate upstream. A distributor of Tianqi Lithium said that Tianqi Lithium appears to be the largest supplier of lithium materials such as lithium carbonate in China, but the volume of Tianqi Lithium is still far less than that of the demand side.
According to the above sources, the current supply of lithium carbonate materials is only about 50,000 tons/year, while the demand side has reached 70,000-80,000 tons/year, and there are now 20,000 to 3 million tons/year. Poor supply and demand. Although many companies have entered this market, supply and demand will still exist in a short time, because the release of lithium carbonate production capacity will take some time.
According to public information, 76% of global lithium resources are distributed in salt lakes and 24% are ores. Lithium reserves in China account for about 17% of the world's total. Salt lakes are the main resources and are mainly distributed in Qinghai and Tibet. However, due to factors such as natural natural conditions, technological level, and product quality stability, the development process is slow.
According to Zhao Li, according to the current situation, it is still difficult to balance the supply and demand of lithium carbonate in 2016. At present, the price of lithium carbonate is basically 5,000 to 10,000 yuan per ton in the price increase. It is expected that the increase to 180,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2016 should not be a problem, and may even exceed 200,000 yuan per ton.
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