Recently, China's heavy-duty truck sales market presents a rare “warm spring scene†and the sales situation appears to be better than expected. The State III engine emission standards to be implemented on July 1 this year have directly induced this sales spectacle.
Country III will reach the domestic heavy truck sales
At present, China's heavy truck sales have entered an unprecedented peak period. According to industry statistics, from January to April this year, the national heavy truck sales with a total weight of over 14 tons increased by 56.43%. Wang Wenyu, deputy general manager of Sinotruk Group, said: "At the end of last year, the growth rate was expected to be between 20% and 25%. Now it seems that the situation is obviously much better."
Looking at the leading companies in the industry, they all achieved very hot production and sales performance. From January to April, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group produced and sold 48,000 heavy vehicles, an increase of 47% year-on-year. Among them, March and April monthly production and sales exceeded 15,000 units, a record-high record. Last year, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group exported about 14,000 heavy trucks, and this year's exports are expected to reach 25,000 units. It now appears that there are 30,000 units that can secure it. In March, FAW Liberation also set a record high of more than 27,000 units in monthly sales, exceeding 2,512 units, an increase of more than 82% year-on-year. In the first quarter, it sold more than 47,000 vehicles and completed 36.8% of the annual plan.
"In these years, the company has been organizing production according to the order. Now, the company's orders are very large and requires 24 hours of non-stop production. According to Wang Wenyu, at present, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has only 15,000 export orders.
Why is the production and sales of domestic heavy trucks so prosperous? Industry analysts believe that the National III emission standard to be implemented on July 1st is a key incentive. At present, domestic heavy-duty truck manufacturers have begun to strictly limit and select the production orders of China II standard engine. Because, the manufacturer must guarantee to arrive at home before June 30, in order to avoid delaying the customer's license. In general, the period of automobile modification is from 20 days to 30 days. Manufacturers must leave sufficient time for the customers to apply for license plates.
In addition to the implementation of new emission standards in China, the technical certification of foreign markets is also strengthening. At present, Russia, one of the major sellers of heavy trucks in China, requires a technical certification for one year. And on July 1 this year, the time for the replacement of the new year coincided with the implementation of the new standard by the State III at the same time. It is understood that Russia's requirement for emission standards is equivalent to the National III standard.
Heavy truck sales growth is directly related to GDP growth. Wang Wenyu believes that since the beginning of this year, China's GDP will maintain a relatively rapid growth rate, which will directly promote the sales of heavy trucks. Another driving factor is the continued growth of capital construction investment. Judging from the situation this year, although bank credits are tight, investment in capital construction has not been significantly controlled and has had little impact on the heavy truck market.
From the perspective of the client, the National III standard to be implemented from July 1 this year will increase the sales price of each vehicle by more than 20,000 yuan. Therefore, some customers who are preparing to purchase cars in the second half of the year have rushed to purchase cars in the first half of the year.
EGR: China National Heavy Duty Truck's "secret weapon"
In response to the new requirements of the National III standard, domestic heavy truck manufacturers have already taken precautions and have successively introduced new heavy trucks that meet the national III standards. For example, Hualing, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles and Other manufacturers have introduced new products or proposed new promotion plans. Sinotruk is the first player in this round of competition.
As early as two and a half years ago, CNHTC began to develop EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) engines. According to reports, this is an engine that uses the exhaust gas circulation system principle to meet the national III emission standards. At present, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has made announcements of more than 50 models of the State III in the National Development and Reform Commission. From May, China National Heavy Duty Truck increased the production ratio of the National III products.
According to Wang Wenyu, deputy general manager of CNHTC, there are two types of engines that meet the national III emission standards: one is a common-rail engine and the other is an EGR engine. Among them, some parts of common-rail engines need to be provided by Japanese manufacturers. Due to their limited production capacity, it may be difficult to meet the needs of domestic manufacturers in the short term. Moreover, this engine is more expensive than the State II engine. At the beginning of March, relevant leaders of China National Heavy Duty Trucks, China FAW, Dongfeng and Shaanxi Automobile Group held a meeting to estimate that a heavy truck equipped with a common-rail engine meeting the State III emission standard would increase by 24,000 to 26,000 yuan in price. At present, the price of a heavy-duty truck is about 50,000 yuan.
The EGR engine developed by CNHTC in the past three years has obvious advantages: First, it consumes less fuel than the State II engine; second, it costs 10,000 to 12,000 yuan less than a common-rail engine per vehicle. Third, the engine's own structure makes its maintenance more convenient. Fourth, the oil used for EGR only needs to meet the oil of the State II engine. Fifth, it is not subject to capacity constraints and can organize production according to the demand for orders. Wang Wenyu said with confidence that EGR will be welcomed by users. At present, this new type of engine has begun to be put on the market.
After July 1, the domestic heavy truck market will become more competitive. The changes in the domestic market competition pattern will mainly depend on whether the strategies adopted by various manufacturers in response to the State III standard have worked. It is understood that at present, most domestic manufacturers use common-rail engines, and only China National Heavy Duty Truck has its own EGR engine, which has certain competitive advantages.
"National III" will usher in the industry's short-term shocks
Since the beginning of this year, due to the combined effects of the appreciation of the renminbi, rising steel prices, and rising labor costs, the production costs of the heavy truck industry in China have been affected. However, industry analysts believe that due to the higher profits of heavy truck industry in China, these impacts are still within the scope of domestic heavy trucks. It is understood that the current sales price of China National Heavy Duty Truck increased by an average of 4,000 yuan per vehicle. The most noteworthy thing is that the heavy truck industry will carry out significant industrial shock adjustments in the upcoming "National III" stage.
Some industry insiders believe that the trend of the domestic heavy truck market this year will be the implementation of the National III emission standards in July as a watershed, turning to a low ebb. There are not many people who hold this view. Wang Wenyu said: “The sales of heavy trucks will decline in the second half of the year. In particular, the implementation of the National III standard may cause some unexpected situations.†But more optimistic people think that in the fourth quarter of this year, with the market to the country III standard With the gradual adaptation, the heavy truck market in China will re-emerge steadily. During the period, the monitoring capabilities of relevant functional departments and the matching of market oil products will become new issues in the implementation of State III standards.
From the freezing rain and snow disaster at the beginning of the year to the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, 2008 was an eventful event. The emergence of these sudden disasters will have a certain impact on the development of the national economy, but overall, China's economic situation this year is still generally good, and in the second half of the heavy truck market demand will not appear a reversal of contraction. The continued construction of a large number of infrastructure facilities and the post-disaster reconstruction of the Wenchuan Earthquake will all have a positive effect on the heavy truck market. Therefore, in the second half of the year, China's heavy truck market may experience a short-term correction after the implementation of the National III standard, but it will soon turn to a sustained growth trend.
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