Several agencies have forecasted that China's oil prices may drop in the coming weeks due to the recent sharp drop in oil prices from international futures markets.
As of the end of last week, WTI fell to the range of US$80/barrel for the first time this year, which was US$77.7/barrel, a sharp drop of US$8.89. The Brent futures price was 74.09 US dollars / barrel, down 8.57 US dollars.
The reporter interviewed analysts from Guotai Junan, China Merchants, Guosen Securities, Haitong Securities, and Guojin Securities. These researchers almost unanimously gave the above judgment.
The international oil price dropped back from the US$145/barrel in mid-July to the current US$77, which is almost a drop in the price. Analysts believe that the government may still be considering what range to adjust the price of refined oil more appropriate.
Statistics from Shenyin Wanguo show that in early October, prices of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene were the highest prices for similar products overseas for the first time since 2005. In terms of aviation kerosene prices, China's tax-exempt prices are even higher than the international average price of 594 yuan/ton.
Analyst Yang Wei of Guotai Junan believes that the National Development and Reform Commission may also continue to observe international oil prices. Therefore, the adjustment may be in the next few weeks or so. Guo Chen Securities analyst Li Chen told this reporter on the phone: "We need to pay attention to November."
Guo Jin Securities analyst Liu Bo believes that the timing of oil price adjustments may come faster. He told this reporter that if the oil price is low for a week, the country is likely to adjust. A person from Sinopec also stated that "the possibility of (upgrading refined oil prices) does exist."
CITIC Securities analyst Yin Xiaodong mentioned in the latest report that market-oriented pricing in the future is still the direction of policy adjustment. Refined oil prices should reflect crude oil costs and processing costs.
Haitong Securities Deng Yong told reporters whether the government will adjust the oil price in the near future and still have to observe the fluctuation of the entire oil price. "If the oil price jumps sharply, it is certainly not a good time to adjust. If the situation of low oil prices can be stabilized, then the government will consider taking action."
Another factor in adjusting oil prices depends on the operation of petrochemical companies. For example, it takes about two months for crude oil to be shipped to the company and production, and some crude oil products that have already been finalized, as well as oils in transit and in storage, need to be digested. Therefore, although the price of international crude oil futures has fallen, it does not fully show that the performance of Sinopec and PetroChina can be quickly reversed. Therefore, if the government drastically adjusts prices of refined oil products in the near future, it will use other methods to coordinate the interests of petrochemical companies.
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