The increase in supply, the market outlook is bearish, and some manufacturers' sales are subject to secondary pricing. The market will continue to slow down. In late January, the 2007 China Chlor-Alkali Forum, organized by the China Chlor-Alkali Industry Association and hosted by China Chlor-Alkali Network, was held in Xiamen. At the meeting, industry insiders analyzed and predicted the domestic PVC market.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the price of PVC declined significantly. In 2006, China’s PVC market experienced a series of challenges and opportunities such as high oil prices, anti-dumping, tariff adjustments, tax rate adjustments, industrial restructuring, and investment by foreign well-known multinational corporations in China. Rapid development, under the adjustment of relevant national policies, there has been no severe vicious competition, but the overall price has declined.
Since the fourth quarter of 2006, China's PVC market has been falling at a faster rate. East China and South China market calcium carbide method PVC fell to 6550 yuan to 6650 yuan / ton in October, a drop of 750 yuan to 880 yuan / ton. Ethylene PVC prices are basically maintained at 7800 yuan to 8100 yuan / ton, but the ethylene and calcium carbide method price trends are significantly different. There are mainly the following factors that cause PVC prices to decline.
The first is psychological factors. As the market is generally bearish on the market outlook, there are not many sources of goods in the hands of dealers, and the willingness to make short positions is not strong. Downstream processing companies do not buy or buy, and the market outlook is not clear under the circumstances of the situation is not clear psychological, procurement awareness is not strong, but with the use to buy. This situation is like oil sales companies. The higher the selling price of oil, the better the sales. The more difficult it is to sell, the more difficult it is to sell. Therefore, the overall market trading was light.
The second is the increasing pressure on the upstream PVC production companies, and the pressure to release inventory has lowered the price.
Third, the local demand in the northern region has shrunk. PVC production companies have increased their sales efforts in the southern region, and the supply from the south has increased significantly. Domestic PVC exports have been blocked and domestic demand has been declining. In particular, the southern market is underemployed and absorbs fatigue. , leading to a clear oversupply of market circulation of goods. Upstream calcium carbide PVC companies have adopted a secondary pricing transaction, the result is to further push down the price.
Fourth, the cost of calcium carbide process PVC production is relatively low. Despite the decline in market prices, companies still have room for profit, and prices have much room for downward adjustment. In the context of weak downstream supply and unclear market movements, prices have become an inevitable trend.
Fifth, the price reduction promotion failed to stimulate the overall market transaction to show a significant increase, and the market remained negative. In the event of oversupply, the prices of the market can only drop once and then fall, and the decline will not stop.
This year's market downturn has revealed that participants will predict that this year's PVC industry will still be a relatively difficult year as a whole, and the negative impact of expansion will not be ignored.
According to statistics, China's PVC production in December last year was 753,400 tons, and it is predicted that this year will exceed 10 million tons. As for the domestic PVC market in the near future, basically it maintains a steady state, the market supply is still sufficient, and the downstream purchase is temporarily not heavy. The overall market conditions are dull. From the price point of view, the market price of PVC calcium carbide in North China is RMB 6330 to RMB 6430/tonne, in East China market it is RMB 6420 to RMB 6550/ton, and in South China market it is RMB 6430 to RMB 6560/ton. Southwest PVC market is relatively stable, the price is 6400 yuan ~ 6650 yuan / ton. Due to the recent spring transportation, PVC prices in Yunnan have increased slightly. Affected by the overall downturn in the domestic PVC market and the unfavorable demand, the PVC market in the southwest region is also not optimistic. PVC prices for ethylene are generally concentrated at RMB 6,750 to RMB 7,250/ton, and the overall market is sluggish.
Overall analysis, the PVC market this year, the lack of good news, the supply will gradually increase, along with the number of North cargo will also increase, the balance of supply and demand will change, and ultimately affect the market price. The market outlook is bearish. Some manufacturers' sales are subject to secondary pricing, and the market may continue to decline slowly.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the price of PVC declined significantly. In 2006, China’s PVC market experienced a series of challenges and opportunities such as high oil prices, anti-dumping, tariff adjustments, tax rate adjustments, industrial restructuring, and investment by foreign well-known multinational corporations in China. Rapid development, under the adjustment of relevant national policies, there has been no severe vicious competition, but the overall price has declined.
Since the fourth quarter of 2006, China's PVC market has been falling at a faster rate. East China and South China market calcium carbide method PVC fell to 6550 yuan to 6650 yuan / ton in October, a drop of 750 yuan to 880 yuan / ton. Ethylene PVC prices are basically maintained at 7800 yuan to 8100 yuan / ton, but the ethylene and calcium carbide method price trends are significantly different. There are mainly the following factors that cause PVC prices to decline.
The first is psychological factors. As the market is generally bearish on the market outlook, there are not many sources of goods in the hands of dealers, and the willingness to make short positions is not strong. Downstream processing companies do not buy or buy, and the market outlook is not clear under the circumstances of the situation is not clear psychological, procurement awareness is not strong, but with the use to buy. This situation is like oil sales companies. The higher the selling price of oil, the better the sales. The more difficult it is to sell, the more difficult it is to sell. Therefore, the overall market trading was light.
The second is the increasing pressure on the upstream PVC production companies, and the pressure to release inventory has lowered the price.
Third, the local demand in the northern region has shrunk. PVC production companies have increased their sales efforts in the southern region, and the supply from the south has increased significantly. Domestic PVC exports have been blocked and domestic demand has been declining. In particular, the southern market is underemployed and absorbs fatigue. , leading to a clear oversupply of market circulation of goods. Upstream calcium carbide PVC companies have adopted a secondary pricing transaction, the result is to further push down the price.
Fourth, the cost of calcium carbide process PVC production is relatively low. Despite the decline in market prices, companies still have room for profit, and prices have much room for downward adjustment. In the context of weak downstream supply and unclear market movements, prices have become an inevitable trend.
Fifth, the price reduction promotion failed to stimulate the overall market transaction to show a significant increase, and the market remained negative. In the event of oversupply, the prices of the market can only drop once and then fall, and the decline will not stop.
This year's market downturn has revealed that participants will predict that this year's PVC industry will still be a relatively difficult year as a whole, and the negative impact of expansion will not be ignored.
According to statistics, China's PVC production in December last year was 753,400 tons, and it is predicted that this year will exceed 10 million tons. As for the domestic PVC market in the near future, basically it maintains a steady state, the market supply is still sufficient, and the downstream purchase is temporarily not heavy. The overall market conditions are dull. From the price point of view, the market price of PVC calcium carbide in North China is RMB 6330 to RMB 6430/tonne, in East China market it is RMB 6420 to RMB 6550/ton, and in South China market it is RMB 6430 to RMB 6560/ton. Southwest PVC market is relatively stable, the price is 6400 yuan ~ 6650 yuan / ton. Due to the recent spring transportation, PVC prices in Yunnan have increased slightly. Affected by the overall downturn in the domestic PVC market and the unfavorable demand, the PVC market in the southwest region is also not optimistic. PVC prices for ethylene are generally concentrated at RMB 6,750 to RMB 7,250/ton, and the overall market is sluggish.
Overall analysis, the PVC market this year, the lack of good news, the supply will gradually increase, along with the number of North cargo will also increase, the balance of supply and demand will change, and ultimately affect the market price. The market outlook is bearish. Some manufacturers' sales are subject to secondary pricing, and the market may continue to decline slowly.
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