·China Automotive Center: This year's auto market growth rate may fall back to 7.7%

In 2016, China's auto market showed a more-than-expected growth under the influence of the macroeconomic stable operation, the purchase tax halving policy, the real estate consumption boom, and the low base of the same period last year. According to the terminal retail data of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (referred to as “China Automobile Center”), the terminal retail sales of the automotive market in 2016 was 27.05 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, of which the sales of passenger car terminals was 24.597 million, a year-on-year increase. 15.4%; commercial vehicle terminal retail sales of 2.908 million, an increase of 16.1%.

The industry generally believes that compared with 2016, the internal and external environmental changes faced by the auto industry this year may lower the growth rate of the auto market. Zhu Xianglei, the head of the data business center of the China National Automotive Industry Center, predicted that the growth rate of the auto market will fall to 7.7% this year, and the sales volume is expected to reach 29.65 million. Among them, the passenger car market is expected to reach 26.64 million units, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales are expected to reach 3.01 million units, an increase of 3.1%.

This year's auto market growth momentum weakened

According to previous forecasts by relevant institutions, China's macro economy is still facing greater downward pressure in 2017, and GDP growth rate is around 6.5%. Zhu Xianglei said that the main reason is that this round of economic growth is supported by the traditional power of real estate, infrastructure and automobile, but the sustainability is not strong. The small-scale real estate cycle has ended with policy control. The infrastructure investment has been overdrafted, and the purchase tax halving policy has been overdrawn. Part of the automobile consumption demand, the support of the three major powers to the economy may be weakened.

Although from the macroeconomic level, this year's auto market growth momentum is insufficient, but from the perspective of possession, China's auto market still has a large room for growth. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Public Security, the total number of private cars reached 146 million in 2016, with 36 per 100 households, far below the level of developed countries. According to reports, in the increasingly fierce market competition, car companies actively launch new models and price reduction promotions and other factors are conducive to boost the automotive market, while taking into account the Chinese auto market into the era of redemption, the local restrictions on the implementation of the policy As well as the policy of second-hand cars gradually implemented, the used car market grew by more than 40% in 2016. It is expected that the used car market is expected to continue to maintain high growth in 2017, further promoting automobile consumption.

However, the China National Automobile Center also stressed that from the perspective of the base, the implementation of the purchase tax halving policy in 2016 has overdrafted this year's demand to a certain extent, and the auto market growth in 2017 will face a high base problem. It is understood that the 2017 implementation of the purchase tax in accordance with the 7.5% standard has been implemented, although the subsidy has declined, but overall is still better than the 2017 auto market. Under the situation of increasing economic downward pressure this year, driving automobile consumption will continue to be an important driving force for economic growth.

Structural trends are becoming more apparent

The annual production and sales of new cars in China have stood at 28 million gates, and they have also shown some structural features that have the characteristics of Chinese car market. Zhu Xianglei believes that due to the improvement of automobile market maturity, automobile consumption upgrade, the main force of automobile consumption after 80/90 and the multi-purpose of SUV to meet the requirements of Chinese families, SUV will still be the fastest growing segment of passenger cars. In the sector, the market sales in 2017 is expected to exceed 10 million units. “The choice of young users to purchase cars is both economical and personal, which will drive the rebuilding of automobile brands, rejuvenate product layouts, and re-upgrade the automobile consumption experience.” Zhu Xianglei said. In addition, since the liberalization of the two-child policy, consumers have become more popular with large-space vehicles. Even in low-priced segments, consumers will increasingly choose large or seven-seat models.

The increase in the income level of residents will speed up the replacement of models, and the more powerful marketing and sales activities of high-end brands will become the reasons why automakers attach great importance to the repurchase market. In addition, the second-hand car market is benefiting from the liberalization of the restriction policy and the increasing acceptance of consumers. The used car market will usher in an outbreak. The replacement of used cars and the purchase of consumers will drive the sales of the new car market to further increase. In terms of market competition, the China Auto Center believes that in the context of the slowdown in the growth of the auto market, automakers will shift from the common development of the past to the weaker and stronger, until the stronger mergers and acquisitions, At the same time, price competition will further intensify.

In addition, the shift of automobile demand to low-tier cities has become an inevitable trend. Zhu Xianglei said that low-line cities are mainly demanding first-time purchases. Consumers are relatively more rational and cautious, pursuing economic and practical. In the future, the proportion of automobile consumption demand in low-tier cities will continue to increase.

Class B 7-seat SUV and station wagon will become hot spots

According to the retail data of the China National Automobile Center Data Resource Center, in 2016, the cumulative growth rate of the SUV market was 38.8%, and the growth rate of the B-class SUV was 40%. Among them, the cumulative sales of B-class 7-seat SUVs was about 350,000, an increase of nearly 70% year-on-year, much higher than the average growth rate of the SUV market. It is worth noting that under the general situation that the growth rate of the passenger car market is gradually slowing down, the high growth rate and the rapid increase of the share of the B-seat 7-seat SUV are particularly bright, and the market potential of this segment needs to be further explored.

According to reports, the concept of “big family” stimulates consumers' demand for seven SUVs, which can satisfy the needs of ordinary consumers for space, practicality and cost performance, and meet the comfort, luxury and technology of high-end consumers. Configuration requirements. Zhu Xianglei analyzed that the current B-class 7-seat SUV market has a high concentration and the market competition is insufficient. According to the data, there are only 37 models in the 7-seat SUV market in 2016, of which Sharp, Highlander and 580 are in the top three sales, and sales account for 60.3% of the total sales of the 7-seat SUV. The sales volume is highly concentrated and the market competition is far from sufficient. Faced with this market blue ocean, many car companies have launched seven SUV models. Recently, GAC Chuanqi GS8, GAC Mitsubishi Outlander, and Sway X7 have entered the market segment.

At present, self-driving tour has become a lifestyle that more and more young people are pursuing. What followed was the market segment of the wagon (WAGON). Relevant data shows that the station wagon accounts for 60% of the European mid-size car market, while the Chinese wagon is still in the blue ocean market. According to a report released by the Tourism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2015, China’s self-driving tour reached 2.2 billion, accounting for 61% of the annual travels. Coupled with the liberalization of the two-child policy, many young families have begun to pursue large space and multi-functional vehicles on the basis of pursuing fashion and flexible control, and the station wagon just meets the demand of “one car and more energy”.

In order to grasp the upcoming market explosion, major car companies have laid out the wagon market. It is understood that Dongfeng Honda Jade, BMW 2 Series Touring, FAW-VW Golf, Jialv, Weiling and other wagons have entered the market with high enthusiasm, striving to seize the market opportunity. Zhu Xianglei emphasized that with the concept of car renewal and improvement of road conditions, self-driving tour is more normal, and many car companies have launched more cost-effective wagons to meet consumer demand. It is foreseeable that the wagon is very likely to be the next blue ocean market.

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