In 2008, the domestic automobile market was the same as in 2004. There was a sharp turn in the middle. The difference is that in 2004, the market situation in the middle of the year went badly. In 2008, the market situation in the whole year was divided into two parts, “Summer Summer†and “Winter,†since July. In the first half of the year, the monthly growth rate of the domestic automobile market was never lower than 12%, but after entering July, it was never higher than 4%, and in November, it was even lower to -9.8%. In this declining market situation, major changes have also taken place in the automobile consumption structure. If you use a sentence to be highly generalized, it is that “the passenger car is convex in the middle, and the commercial vehicle is tilted in both directionsâ€.
- Based on the statistics of the National Information Center, the passenger car market has a statistical analysis. From January to November 2008, the growth rate of the domestic passenger car market was only 8.3%, not only lower than the 23% in 2007 and 31.1% in 2006, but also The lowest year since 2000. From the point of view of vehicles, SUVs, crossover passenger cars and A-class passenger cars are the three highlights of the 2008 passenger car market.
From January to November 2008, the sales volume of SUVs increased by 33.4% year-on-year, and although it was lower than the 52.8% recorded in 2007, it was still the largest increase in the number of passenger cars. The second-ranked increase in sales was crossover passenger cars; the year-on-year sales growth of this type of vehicle is expected to be 9.69%. From January to November 2008, the total demand for domestic cars increased by 6.3% year-on-year, of which the increase in demand for A-Class cars was nearly 20 percentage points lower than in 2007, but the increase of 11.4% was still the largest in all class cars. The growth rate of domestic demand for B- and C-class cars with the highest growth rates in previous years was only 2.7% and 0.1%. The phrase “Icefire, Two Heavy Skyslings†reflected in these two sedan segments was more than adequate. The growth rates of the A00 and A0 sedan were 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively, although they were slightly higher than before. However, this was not obvious.
The above three highlights indicate: First, China has entered the popularity period of cars. As the popularity of cars has increased, the proportion of individuals buying cars has gradually increased, and the market share of cars under Class A and Class A is increasing. The deceleration of the macroeconomic environment and the downturn of the market in the second half of this year have promoted the healthy development of the car consumption structure in China in the direction of miniaturization and energy conservation. If the market picks up longer, the market share of cars with Grade A and below will increase. Second, with the increase in the popularity of cars, consumer demand for personalization and practical use is bound to increase. Under this trend, the development trend of multi-function passenger cars is promising. In 2008, the larger increase in SUVs and crossover passenger vehicles is the best footnote for the evolution of this consumer structure. From January to November of 2008, the medium-displacement urban SUVs accounted for nearly 75% of the entire SUV market, with the largest volume of sales, driving the rapid growth of SUVs. In the same period, the market share of MPV was shrinking, and its sales volume was down 6.9% year-on-year. This was mainly due to the low number of models and higher prices. If the medium-displacement MPV market can grow rapidly, then the “middle convex†feature of the domestic passenger car consumption structure will be in a perfect state.
Comprehensive analysis of various aspects has predicted that in the first half of 2009, the auto market will remain at a low growth stage, at least in the first quarter. This means that the A-Class sedan, urban SUVs and crossover passenger cars will continue to serve as the troika that will drive the growth of the passenger vehicle market. In addition, the low-cost, low-displacement passenger car market is expected to further get rid of the contraction that lasted for several years, and it will develop rapidly.
- A qualitative improvement in consumer attitudes Although the consumer structure of passenger cars in 2008 appeared to be passive due to the economic slowdown, it became natural that consumption concepts became more mature.
In 2002, there was a "blowout" in the domestic auto market. From then on, it entered a seven-year high growth period. As the car is in the initial stage of popularization, the concept of domestic passenger car consumption is still rather naive. In addition to the model and brand, the configuration of price, comfort, fuel economy and reliability are the standards that most consumers pay more attention to. Nowadays, more and more car buyers are beginning to “pay attention†to the overall cost of use and the quality of service throughout the entire process in order to achieve a complete feeling of “happy carâ€. More and more owners have discovered that “the joy of having a car†is not limited to driving. In the process of using cars for several years, if the after-sales service is not good, it will be an anguish. This “pay attention†was more fully performed by the second-time car buyers, and domestic car consumption has ushered in the peak of the car shift in the past two years.
The above two "respects" show that the concept of domestic passenger car consumption is in the process of transition from immature to maturity.
- The “two-headed warping†phenomenon of commercial vehicles will continue. From January to November 2008, the growth rate of the domestic commercial vehicle market was only 7.7%, which was lower than the 16.7% in 2007. In the first half of 2008, the growth rate of commercial vehicle monthly market was not lower than 15.6%, and in November, it actually fell to -25.6% all the way to the "cold" state. The consumption structure of commercial vehicles in 2008 is the opposite of that of passenger vehicles. It shows the characteristics of “two heads and awkwardnessâ€: heavy trucks, light trucks, micro cards and large passengers are still the four-carriage driving the growth of the domestic commercial vehicle market; Sales volume of Zhongke passengers was negative year-on-year. This "two-headed" consumer structure is likely to continue in 2009. However, with the gradual implementation of the “guaranteed growth†policy of the central government and local governments, major capital construction investment projects have started one after another, and various “three rural†policies will also increase farmers’ consumer confidence, engineering dump trucks, and low-cost light trucks. Buses and other models are expected to develop faster.
View related topics: increase millions every year, analyze the production and sales of automobiles (commercial vehicles)
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