In April, prices in the petrochemical market rose steadily, with 52% of products showing an upward trend, with acetic acid leading the rise with 47.43%, and HFC-22 leading with -15.52%. According to analysts, if the price of acetic acid rises by 100 yuan per ton, Huaru Hengsheng will benefit from the increase in production capacity, with a 14.75+1.349.99% per share thickening of the shares of Oka 29.35+0.371.28% of wisdom 16.71+0.020. 12% Hua Lu Hengsheng 15.91-0.01-0.06% Zhongtai Chemical 12.98-0.07-0.54% 3 cents; and ethylene oxide prices in April is weak, if you drop 1,000 yuan per ton, Oakstock raw material costs will be large Drop, earnings per share increased by 0.3 yuan.
In April, the performance of chemical stocks in the A-share market was very eye-catching. According to the data of great wisdom, the chemical fiber board index was once shot up to 4288.96 points in April, hitting a new high in the past three years. In fact, this wave of chemical stocks market, to a large extent, is caused by the price increase of chemical products.
According to business statistics, petrochemical market prices rose steadily in April. Of the 68 products in the chemical market, the price of 30 products showed an upward trend, the price of 8 products remained stable, and the price of 30 products showed a downward trend. Among them, acetic acid rose the most, with a monthly increase of 47.43%; and HFC-22 month loss of 15.52%, the largest decline. All 12 products in the energy market rose, of which Brent crude oil rose by 9.32% and coke had the smallest increase by 1.08%. Of the 20 products in the rubber and plastics market, 10 products rose in April, 3 remained unchanged, and 7 fell. Polyvinyl chloride (hereinafter referred to as PVC) has the largest monthly increase, which is 8.05%. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) drops the most, accounting for 4.28%.
Acetate rose 47.43% this month
Looking at the 68 indicators of the chemical industry, the chemical market continued its upward trend. After soaring in February and adjusting in March, the chemical market continued to maintain its consolidation trend in April, but there was still a lot of eye-catching products. Acetic acid was one of the outstanding representatives. In April, it led the chemical market with a 47.43% increase. . Ethyl acetate also rose 24.29% in April, ranking second in the list.
At the same time, the domestic caustic soda market also rose in April. The price rose from the 660 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 740 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.81%. Business community analysts believe that the main reason for the rise of acetic acid is the downstream market. Companies such as paper and alumina have a large demand for caustic soda. At the same time, the export situation is relatively good and companies are shipping smoothly. Listed companies for caustic soda are Zhongtai Chemical (002092, closing price of 12.98 yuan), chlor-alkali chemical (600618, closing price of 14.75 yuan) and Xinjiang Tianye (600075, closing price of 12.56 yuan). Prices of styrene, sulfuric acid, propylene oxide, and fluorite powder also rose in varying degrees.
From the energy market point of view, the energy market in April steadily increased. The 12 kinds of products monitored by the Business Club rose across the board, with an increase of less than 10%. The prices of products such as liquefied gas, methanol, and dimethyl ether rose slightly, mainly due to the full recovery of economic fundamentals, high international oil price shocks, and favorable support for energy products, and prices have steadily increased. Compared with March, the energy market rose more conservatively this month, but it showed a good development year-on-year. Business community analyst Xia Xihua predicts that prices of energy products in the market will remain high.
In the rubber and plastics market, PVC was the leading product. In early April, the price of the product was 7,450 yuan/ton, and it was 8,050 yuan/ton at the end of April, an increase of 8.05%; PET (bottle grade) fell from 14,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of April to At the end of the month, it was 13,400 yuan/ton, down by 4.28%.
May petrochemical market or adjustment
In general, the prices of petrochemical products rose in April as a result of continued rising crude oil prices. The continuous rise in costs and the arrival of some product demand seasons have contributed to the formation of an overall rise. Business community analyst Zhang Ming believes that in May will begin to enter the traditional peak season of chemical market sales, aromatics, fluorine chemicals, bromine chemicals, chlor-alkali chemicals and other industries will show the trend of supply and marketing boom, the market rise; agrochemical products, salt chemical products prices Will be in a downturn due to the increase in supply and demand. As a whole, the trend of the chemical market rising more or less in the afternoon may continue, but not much.
Looking at the petrochemical 100 weathervane, Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the business community, believes that there are three aspects of the petrochemical market in April: First, the constant increase in crude oil prices will bring rising prices to the prices of bulk commodities and petrochemical downstream products, as well as to enterprises. Large cost pressures; Second, downstream products such as general-purpose plastics have begun to exert pressure, but due to the terminal receiving and limited demand, the increase is far less than crude oil. Some chemical intermediates prices fell in March and they fell back in April, such as toluene diisocyanate (TDI), liquid chlorine, oxalic acid, etc. The third is to compare the futures and spot prices, and we can easily find the petrochemical market outlook. Not optimistic. Business community current data show that in early May, Tianjiao's main contract was 1,109 yuan, which was 30,615 yuan per ton, while spot price was 37,200 yuan per ton, current price gap was nearly 7,000 yuan per ton; and terephthalic acid (PTA) main contract was 9,928. For 10,650 yuan / ton, while the current spread 700 yuan / ton. These all indicate that the industry is bearish on the outlook.
“Given that the commodity market has been in a state of fatigue in late April, most commodity prices have seen a correction pattern, and it is expected that the price of petrochemical products will be adjusted in May, and it will be difficult for varieties to rise and fall,†said Liu Xintian.
Integrated PVC companies may usher in opportunities in May
In April, the performance of the domestic PVC market was also extremely eye-catching. The data monitored by the business community shows that the average price of PVC from the beginning of April at 7,450 yuan/ton has risen to the price of 8,050 yuan/ton at the end of April, up 8.05%.
Xue Jinlei, a business analyst, said that the main reason for the rise of PVC was the high crude oil price, and the price of ethylene monomer, vinyl chloride (VCM) and dichloroethane (EDC) rose. At the same time, the calcium carbide process upstream raw material calcium carbide is in short supply, and the domestic quotation naturally rises. In addition, there is an important reason is the driving effect of a substantial increase in the export volume of PVC, Shandong, Hebei and other places increased foreign orders, supply in short supply, affected by the Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Henan and other places to follow up. At the end of the month, the mainstream sales of ordinary electric stone materials in East China and South China were around 8,000 yuan/ton.
In addition, the electricity restriction policy has more obvious impact on the price of PVC. CSC analysts said that the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first quarter of 2011 is expected to rebound, and the new round of “energy-saving emission reduction†and power-reduction policies are expected to restart in May. The PVC industry, as a traditional heavy chemical industry, is one of the industries with the largest energy consumption. Therefore, the production capacity and supply will be affected in the electricity restriction policy, and will be affected by the power cost and the supply weakness caused by the production restriction. Product prices will be high.
“If companies in high-energy-consuming industries can have a higher energy self-sufficiency rate, under the background of power cuts and high-power tariffs, they will be able to maintain relative stability in output and cost, and related companies will face development opportunities.†CSC Investment Research Report display.
In the A-share market, the degree of integration between Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Yingliite, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tianyuan Group is significant, which deserves attention.
Inner Mongolia Junzheng coal self-sufficiency rate reached 100%, electricity self-sufficiency rate was 80%, PVC production capacity was 455,000 tons/year; performance elasticity was highest, and there was a large shareholder injection of chemical resources and salt mines, coal mines expected Intime, owned PVC production capacity of 275,000 tons / year; in 2011 to double production capacity, the future continued explosive growth in production capacity of China and Thailand Chemicals; with strong coal resources and phosphate rock resources integration space, Tianyuan Group, which has grown rapidly in the next two years.
At the same time, Binhua shares rely on the resource advantages of thermal power plants, the power self-sufficiency rate reaches 90%, and its propylene oxide and caustic soda production capacity respectively benefit from the continuous development of the polyurethane and chlor-alkali chemical industry.
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