For the entire power battery industry this year, half is fire and half is ice. The double-point policy is about to be implemented, and the top-level policy such as the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is on the agenda. The industry has seen the country’s firm determination to develop new energy sources, spreading hope for power batteries. At the same time, structural overcapacity, rising raw material prices, and price cuts It has also become a pain that the industry has to face. At the 5th Lithium Power “Davos†forum held in Shantou, Guangdong Province, the industry has conducted in-depth discussions on the above hot topics.
Accelerating the expansion of capacity This year, there are two obvious changes in the lithium battery market: First, under the investment expansion, mergers and acquisitions, the competition among leading enterprises has intensified; Second, the power battery field, the application of the ternary lithium battery market is large. increase.
The data provides a good proof. According to the statistics of the expansion of production and mergers and acquisitions of lithium batteries and their upstream materials from the beginning of 2016 to the first half of 2017, 123 of the 143 investment projects included in the statistics have announced the investment amount, totaling over 230.7 billion yuan; Of the 63 reorganization projects included in the statistics, 60 projects announced the transaction amount, totaling 130.6 billion yuan.
Under the trend of expanding production, reports of increased capacity expansion and increased competition have also been reported from time to time. Ningde era launched IPO listing, and SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan and other car companies to promote the development of the group, half-year valuation rose over 100 billion yuan; BYD, with a market value of over 100 billion, also began to adjust its strategy, intending to split the battery sector and market its business. And accelerate the layout of the international market, the United States' sole-owned construction of the largest electric bus factory in the United States; Lishen battery also set a "double billion" target in 2017 - production capacity of over 10 billion, sales of over 10 billion; BAK battery in early November Also announced that it will invest 14.3 billion yuan to build the BAK Industrial Park in Jining Economic Development Zone, Shandong...
The overcapacity associated with the expansion of production and the reshuffle of the industry are also accelerating. "With the influx of large amounts of capital, there are now industrial surpluses in many industries." Industry insiders are pointing to the problem.
According to industry insiders, the cumulative installed capacity of lithium batteries in the first 10 months of this year was 18.1GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.43%. A total of 76 battery manufacturers have formed an effective installed supply. It is estimated that the number of the whole year will be around 80. “There were 109 last year, which means that about 30 battery factories may close down this year, and the industry reshuffle has been fully opened.â€
In the eyes of the industry, the entire industry is crazy under the market. As of the third quarter of this year, the total capacity of China's top 20 power battery companies was 102.2 Gwh, far exceeding the installed capacity of lithium batteries, and the overcapacity was unquestionable. “There will be only a handful of companies in the entire automotive power battery industry in the future.â€
In addition, due to the new energy subsidy new policy, the ternary lithium battery with higher energy density has experienced explosive growth this year, and its application in the field of power battery has become mainstream.
According to industry sources, from the perspective of various types of batteries, in the first 10 months of 18.1GWh total installed capacity of lithium batteries, ternary/manganese batteries accounted for 5.05GWh of 55.03%, of which lithium manganate batteries were less than 0.9GWh. Lithium iron phosphate battery accounted for 4.38GWh at 43.51%, which was down from 44.27% in the previous 9 months.
It is also known that Ningde era, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other large lithium iron phosphate battery companies have begun to increase the production capacity of ternary lithium batteries. BYD publicly stated that all of its plug-in hybrid passenger cars have already used ternary batteries. In the future, in the passenger vehicle field, including plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles, ternary batteries will be gradually used.
Multi-measures and cost-cutting profits are the eternal goals pursued by enterprises. However, this year, due to the impact of subsidies on new energy vehicles, battery companies are under great pressure. How to reduce costs has become one of the topics discussed in this conference. "Battery costs are reduced, and it is bound to start from the cost reduction of various materials. We must prepare for the cost reduction from all aspects of energy and raw materials." Yang Boru, general manager of Qingdao Lanke Tu Film Materials Co., Ltd. said.
“The cost pressure of power battery companies is very high this year. The cobalt, nickel, manganese and anode materials of cathode materials have risen sharply.†Hu Bo, general manager of Shanghai Shanshan Technology Co., Ltd. added, “In terms of cost reduction of anode materials, our approach is to expand Scale. This year we announced the construction of an integrated base of 100,000 tons of anode materials per year in Baotou, from raw material processing to graphitization to finished products, which are completed in this plant, thereby reducing transportation costs and dependence on other processing companies. At the same time, it also establishes joint ventures with some important domestic raw material enterprises, and seizes certain resources by investing in raw materials."
Tian Hanrong, chairman of Shenzhen Times Hi-Tech, believes that cost reduction is a long-term work, and there are many methods, the most important one is in scale. "We must adhere to long-term technological input, consider large-scale production, and improve efficiency. At the same time, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will form a win-win cooperation and form a long-term and sustained virtuous circle."
In response to the high battery material prices, Li Qinghai, vice president of Guangdong Mengshi New Energy, believes that enterprises do not worry about the high or low price of materials, and they are most afraid of instability, which makes battery companies uncomfortable. He suggested that Establish a strategic reserve market for cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium at the national or industry level to stabilize the price market and facilitate the healthy development of the industry.
From the perspective of the entire industrial chain, the development of new energy vehicles will inevitably bring a large number of used batteries. How to recycle well and realize the closed loop of the industrial chain is a hot topic in the current industry. At the same time, recycling is also an effective way to solve the scarcity of resources, especially the current price of ternary materials is rising, and the value of recycling begins to appear.
However, although power battery recycling is a hot topic, the battery recycling industry has not actually done so. In Wu Hui’s view, this is more of an economic issue. “New energy vehicles have only started mass production two or three years ago. The real elimination of a large number of used batteries should be in 2018 and 2019. For companies engaged in battery recycling, the profit turning point is in 2019. Many battery factories or The OEM believes that recycling is a burden, but in the future it is an opportunity to make money." He bluntly.
Cai Dong, general manager of Far East Foster, is optimistic about the potential of the future recycling market. “Recycling total output value may be several billions at present. There will be a high-speed growth of the rear car battery, and the recycling volume may reach tens of billions.†He further stated that Compared with direct use for resource recovery, the maximum value of decommissioned power batteries is applied to the use of ladders, such as energy storage, small mobility tools, etc. This market has a large demand for decommissioned power batteries, and there is a large market for market exploration.
In the current situation of poor recovery economy and low enthusiasm of enterprises, Yishou Zhong, chief engineer of Shenzhen Xiongyu Power Supply, suggested that “the government can give some support policies at this stage, such as taxation or financial subsidies. But in the long run, it is still It is necessary to solve the problem through technological advancement. In the future, the country may introduce corresponding standards. If there is no battery system with recycling value, production will not be allowed."
In order to facilitate battery recycling, Yi Shouzhong further recommended that in addition to strengthening the research and development and application of lithium battery recycling technology, in the front end of battery design, battery production process, etc., it is also considered to facilitate the recycling of the back end.
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