2011 is the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan of China. From the perspective of development trends, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the development space of China's auto industry is still relatively large. In particular, the voice and expectation of the Chinese auto industry to develop independently, become bigger and stronger have been further enhanced. At the same time, the Chinese auto industry is standing at a new starting point and step and will face a series of new pressures and challenges.
For example, with the increase of the market base, the growth rate of the auto market will return to rationality, and the intensity of competition in the industry, the level of competition, and the field of competition will all be further upgraded. As the price of energy and materials fluctuates and the price of oil rises, the manufacturing costs of the industry, the operating costs of the company, and the associated costs in the automotive value chain will all face increasing pressure. The profitability of the entire industry will face new challenges. In addition, resources Constraints on the development of the automobile industry, environmental protection, transportation, etc. are increasingly intensified, and the macro environment, market environment, and policy environment are all steadily tightening. The auto market will face uncertainties that are more difficult to predict and grasp.
As we all know, the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is a crucial period for China's economic and social development to carry forward its past. The major reforms in the economic and social fields have entered a crucial stage; investments, exports, and consumption have driven the troika of economic growth to face downward pressure; per capita GDP has exceeded 4000 US dollars. After the fall into the "middle income" risk. Effectively addressing and resolving these major challenges and problems, and accelerating the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of development methods are the only way to go, and this will surely have a major impact on China's economic growth in the coming years.
How can the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" of the auto industry open up a good and good foundation? The relevant government departments and auto companies are all planning and thinking. For the Chinese commercial vehicle market in 2011, the analysis and prediction of various industry experts and industry experts from different perspectives have the overall impression that the macroeconomic economy has both advantages and disadvantages, and the number of variables is quite large; the growth of the industry situation is slowing down and mixed; the basic judgment is : In the plain we can see the strange rise.
â— Macroeconomics: Both pros and cons and variables
From the perspective of the external environment, the recovery of the world economy in 2011 from the recovery stimulated by the previous ultra-conventional policy will shift to a stable or even low-speed growth stage. The external environment facing China's economic development will remain tight. The economic recovery of the United States is still insufficient. The European sovereign debt crisis is still not over. The Japanese economy has recovered from its dual dependence on the United States and China. However, it is affected by external influences and is uncertain in the future. The global economy will face " "Stagflation" risk.
As far as the Chinese economy is concerned, the “troika†has slowed down and the economic climate has dropped slightly. Investment growth is still relatively fast, but the increase has declined. It is expected that China's fixed asset investment will increase by about 20% in 2011, which is lower than the growth rate of the previous year. The expansion of consumption continues to be effective, and consumption continues to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will increase by about 13% in 2011, which is 2 percentage points lower than the previous year. The recovery of the external demand market has been slow and the export growth has dropped significantly. It is expected that imports and exports will increase by about 16% in 2011, imports will increase by about 18%, and the trade surplus will decrease from the previous year.
Comprehensive analysis of supply and demand factors, it is expected that China's economy will continue to maintain stable and rapid growth in 2011, and the GDP growth rate will be around 9%. Despite the overall good economic development in 2011, a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese economy will still face seven major problems: the constraints on resource and environment for economic growth, the imbalance between investment and consumption, the large gap between income distribution, the lack of scientific and technological innovation capability, and the lack of industrial structure. Reasonable, the development of urban and rural areas is not enough coordination, the total employment pressure and structural conflicts coexist. Therefore, there are many advantages and disadvantages of China's macroeconomic economy in 2011, and it needs a dynamic tracking and attention from automobile companies.
â—Industry trend: slower growth rate, mixed
During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the performance of the Chinese auto industry has always been surprising. It has frequently caused surprises to the people and the world. The entire Chinese market gives people a sense of excitement about "riding cars."
Standing at the starting point of 2011 and the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", where does the Chinese auto market go? How to manage? Is "lightly stepping on the throttle"? Is "click brake"? Is it a "neutral glide"? Or "reverse steering"? Sentence slogan: Everything is possible.
For the Chinese auto market in 2011, the basic consensus is that the growth rate will fall to a certain degree. The growth of 10% to 15% has become the consensus of most of the industry. Of course, there are also pessimists who believe that the auto market may experience zero growth and negative growth; the optimist's estimated auto market, despite its decline, still has an increase of more than 15%. Overall, China's auto production and sales are expected to exceed 20 million in 2011, which is a good expectation for everyone. According to another forecast, by 2015, China’s auto market will reach an annual production and sales volume of approximately 30 million vehicles, and the annual production and sales volume of 50 million vehicles will probably be a number of caps in China.
With the overall growth of the Chinese auto market slowing down, the domestic auto groups and their commercial vehicle companies are mixed. From the information obtained by a considerable number of competitive commercial vehicle dealers’ conferences, it can be seen that some companies are full of expectation or cautious optimism about the growth of the auto market in 2011, and clearly stated that they are more than 10% of the sales target or market share in the previous year. The rate of improvement goals; of course, there are a few commercial vehicle companies feel uncertain in the year 2011, facing the "survival" crisis.
The following may wish to do a "reverse" projection. If 20 million vehicles are expected to be established in 2011, the average sales structure ratio of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in 2010 and the last five years will be roughly 76:24 or 75:25. From this, the total demand of commercial vehicles in 2011 will be calculated. Between 4.8 million and 5 million vehicles, the actual sales volume in 2010 was 4,004,100, and the increase was calculated to be between 12% and 16%. Obviously this result is optimistic or cautiously optimistic.
We will make a relatively "pessimistic" measure. If the growth of the commercial vehicle market in 2011 is less than 10%, for example, within 8%, then the total demand for the commercial vehicle market in 2011 will be around 4.6 million to 4.65 million. Even so, there are still more than 300,000 absolute increments over the previous year. It can be seen that the commercial vehicle market in 2011 still contains business opportunities. This should be full of confidence.
Of course, there is an extreme forecast that is negative growth or zero growth. In theory, it is possible to have such a chance. However, as far as China’s macroeconomic situation is concerned, the reality of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†in the beginning and the face of the change of government in 2012 will not necessarily be the government’s desire for a downturn in the automobile market, both politically and economically. From the perspective of the natural laws of the development of the automotive market and the company’s own interests, it is not expected that the Chinese auto market in 2011 will be “too sluggish and dismalâ€. Therefore, the overall decline is very small.
â— Market Expectations: Segmentation is uneven
The general feeling of China's commercial vehicle market in 2011 is that it is surprising to see the rise in the plain. The so-called dull aspect is that compared to the high growth during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period, the commercial vehicle and the entire automobile market will face a new round of adjustment period in 2011. Regardless of sales volume or profitability, commercial vehicles should be treated as “normalâ€. "The mind is calm and calm to see it." The so-called "triviality" is relative to the competition of commercial vehicle companies. When the market is in a high growth period, they may "be safe". However, the market game at the time of adjustment will become even more cruel. Dangerous conditions require unique and extraordinary wisdom, namely, "Cliffs are in a strange situation."
It is expected that there will be such a situation in the commercial vehicle market in 2011. In the overall dullness, the market segments “sword out of sheath†and “sword-stretchingâ€. The needs of market segments may also be uneven.
The following three key points in the commercial vehicle market in 2011 deserve attention.
First, can the heavy-duty truck market stand at one million steps? Previously, the media has found many reasons to assert that heavy trucks will decline in 2011. Some people have also proposed some advantages of heavy truck growth. Heavy trucks are the vane of the commercial vehicle market. No matter whether the increase or decrease is worthy of attention.
Second, how large is the impact of the relevant policies on the light and micro-card markets after delisting? The growth of these young and micro-card markets has benefited greatly from the stimulus of policies such as “cars going to the countrysideâ€. It is worth paying attention to whether the commercial vehicle market can get rid of the “policy marketâ€.
Third, will the passenger car market “ebb†soon after it is “excited� The growth rate of the passenger car market in 2010 was somewhat unusual. Can the bus market continue to grow rapidly in 2011? Or will you reply to the old days? Worthy of attention.
If in the first quarter of 2011, the three points of interest can have the expected "excitement" point, the commercial vehicle market will continue to develop. Otherwise, the market may face certain pressures and setbacks.
In short, I still look forward to the commercial vehicle market. If the commercial vehicle market in 2010 is "tiger and tiger" - with the benefit of the entire auto market, it can be "added even more", then in 2011, the commercial vehicle market must not have the pessimism of rabbit death, nor can it "move away from rabbits". The blind move, but to crouch, "see the rabbit eagle."
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