China drying wire Reuters at 14:00 on September 29, is located near the city of Himeji Kobe, Japan, Nippon Shokubai SAP plant acrylic tank exploded and caused the fire, resulting in all its Himeji plant shutdown. Affected by this, China's acrylic acid market has seen a number of hot flashes in which prices have risen several times a week. Domestic acrylic acid prices have risen from 11,400 yuan (t price, the same below) at the end of September to the current 16,000 yuan, an increase of more than 40%, setting off the largest price increase this year and the longest duration of a price increase. In addition, in mid-October, the mainstream international acrylic acid producers also joined the price increase.
Acrylic acid is mainly used for the production of butyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate as comonomers for water-soluble paints and adhesives, as well as the production of super absorbent polymers. Among them, about 55% of the total demand for the production of acrylates, about 32% for the production of superabsorbent polymer (SAP), a small amount for the production of polyacrylates as thickeners, dispersants and streams Change control agent. With the richness and development of downstream products, the worldwide production capacity of acrylic acid is also increasing. The current annual global production capacity has reached 5.5 million tons. China has also become an increasingly important acrylic acid producer in the world with an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons.
The annual production capacity of acrylic acid and SAP of the Japanese catalyst company with an explosion accident was 460,000 tons and 320,000 tons respectively, which accounted for 8.6% and 20% of the world respectively. It has an unbewived position in the international acrylic acid market. The accident led to the suspension of production at the plant site, and it was estimated by the industry that it would take at least six months to repair and reach the original output. Due to the expected reduction in market supply, domestic acrylic acid producers first responded to the incident by raising prices.
Private enterprises are most sensitive to accidents and the fastest response is Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co., Ltd. After the accident of the Japanese catalyst company, on the first working day after the “Eleventh†Festival, the acrylic acid factory price of the company rose exponentially. With the completion of the second phase and third phase of the satellite petrochemical acrylic acid project last year, the total annual production capacity of acrylic acid has reached 160,000 tons, ranking the top three in terms of scale, ranking top 10 in international rankings, and becoming the acrylic acid market at home and abroad. Can not be ignored strength. Therefore, the price increase of satellite petrochemicals also stimulated the nerves of other companies.
After the “11†holiday, several domestic acrylic acid production companies such as Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Co., Ltd., Shanghai Huayi Acrylic Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemicals, Formosa Plastics Acrylic (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and Yangba Co., Ltd. have truly set off. The price hike has been on the rise, with an average price increase of 1 to 2 times per week, and each price increase is between 500 and 1,000 yuan. At present, domestic acrylic acid prices have risen from 11,400 yuan at the end of September to more than 16,000 yuan, an increase of more than 40%. This wave of price increases also allows companies to obtain substantial profits. According to the satellite petrochemical communique, in the first three quarters, the company realized operating income of 2.36 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 290 million yuan. Benefiting from the recent rise in the price of acrylic acid, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company for the entire year to range from 380 million to 470 million yuan, equivalent to about 0.95 to 1.18 yuan per share.
At the same time, several major international acrylic acid production giants also joined the price increase in mid-October. Arkema Group announced that it will increase prices of acrylates and other products sold in Europe, the Middle East and Africa from October 15th, with a price increase of 5% to 15%. Dow Chemical, which was ranked second, also announced that it will increase the US domestic acrylonitrile contract price by 7 cents/lb, which is more than 6%.
Analysis of industry experts, on the surface, the explosion accident of Nippon Shokubai Co., Ltd. is the cause of the hot rise in this round of the acrylic market. However, in-depth analysis shows that this accident is just a fuse.
It is understood that although the acrylic acid orders from foreign countries were significantly higher than those in the past after the Japanese catalyst accident, the export enthusiasm of suppliers has not risen in the recent sharp increase in domestic prices and lucrative profits. The impact of Japanese catalyst accidents is more on the psychological level. At the same time, the SAP market due to the direct impact of Japan's catalyst accident is relatively stable compared to the acrylic and ester markets, which proves from the side that the actual impact of the accident on the domestic acrylic acid market is limited. The important reason for the price increase is that downstream companies, such as adhesives and adhesive tapes, have been pessimistic about their market prospects. Most of them have insufficient raw materials for acrylic materials. Therefore, after the Japanese catalyst accident occurred, the downstream manufacturers lacked reversible countermeasures for acrylic acid producers' price increase actions, and they could only react passively, and they had to accept continued high prices.
At the same time, the intermediate traders actively shipped goods during the two-week period after the accident, and this also led to the current phenomenon of maintaining low stocks. Traders and downstream factories generally have purchasing requirements, supporting the long-term price increase.
At present, the demand for the domestic acrylic acid market remains strong, and the current production of acrylic acid producers can only be barely supplied, and even there is a phenomenon that there is no market price. Therefore, it is widely expected in the industry that there is still room for further increase in the acrylic acid market. Shen Xiaowei, secretary of the Satellite Petrochemical Board of Directors, also told reporters that in addition to paying attention to changes in downstream demand, the progress of the repair of Japanese catalysts needs special attention. After all, the length of time it takes to resume production directly affects the market. The psychological judgment of supply and demand.
According to industry sources, the third quarter is often the peak season for the acrylic market. And with the improvement of people's living standards, downstream SAP will have a leap-forward growth, which will form a long-term rigid demand for acrylic acid to grow. SAP is one of the two major downstream demand markets for acrylic acid, which is mainly used for the production of hygiene products. At present, the differences in SAP demand structure at home and abroad are mainly reflected in the low usage of SAP for adult incontinence products and baby diapers in China. With the increase of per capita income, the upgrading of consumer attitudes and the arrival of an aging society, the SAP industry will usher in a relatively rapid development period, which will greatly increase the consumption demand for acrylic acid.
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