While Europe and the United States were immersed in the joy of the Christmas holiday, the international oil price unknowingly once again stood at 90 US dollars / barrel.
On December 22, the New York Mercantile Exchange's February delivery of light crude oil futures prices rose 66 cents to settle at $90.48 a barrel. This set a new high for oil prices in two years. At the time of writing yesterday, the price of oil in New York, although slightly lower in Asian electronic trading, remained steady above US$91/barrel. At this point, New York's oil prices have stood at more than 90 US dollars for a week, which means that the international oil price level has entered a new platform.
In this regard, a number of experts told this reporter that according to the current trend, the price of oil will almost certainly be broken one hundred next year. By then, the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism will undergo new tests and bear considerable pressure. Fine-tuning of the mechanism is imperative.
The oil price breaks through 100 is a matter of time. "The price of oil will go up next year. According to the current trend of rising $3 to $5 per dollar, then stopping and then continuing to rise, breaking 100 in the next year is almost certain." Xiamen University, China Energy Economics Research Professor Lin Boqiang, director of the center, said in an interview with this reporter yesterday.
He believes that the fact that international oil prices have not broken 100 this year has been considered "good luck" because high oil prices will still cause harm to the real economy and will adversely affect the global economic recovery.
"It is expected that at more than 100 US dollars at a certain time next year will be positive, and it is not ruled out that it will even exceed 110 US dollars at a certain point, but it will be difficult to say whether it will stand at more than 100 US dollars. After all, the average oil price this year is only 80 US dollars. The average price of oil next year may stand on the platform of 90 US dollars, but it still needs a process to really reach the platform of 100 US dollars." Lin Boqiang said.
According to the calculation of the Institute of Economics and Technology of China Petrochemical, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2010 was about 80 US dollars per barrel, which was significantly higher than the 62 US dollars per barrel in 2009.
The agency also predicts that the international crude oil price level in 2011 will have risen compared with 2010, and it is more likely to exceed 90 US dollars per barrel.
Earlier, a number of international agencies have predicted that the international crude oil price in 2011 may hit high again.
As the global economy is expected to have higher growth, the US Department of Energy recently raised its forecast for global crude oil prices in 2011. It is expected that the average WTI price will be US$86.08 per barrel, which is an increase of US$0.91 from the November forecast.
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, also said recently that the era of “low oil prices†has ended. It is very likely that the oil price will “break 100†again in 2011. The three major factors driving the rise in oil prices are the pace of economic recovery, the depreciation of the US dollar, and fundamental factors of supply and demand.
In addition, investment banks Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs also made predictions for the 2011 international oil price or breakthrough of 100 US dollars per barrel.
In Lin Boqiang's view, if the global economy recovers to the pre-crisis level in 2008, it is not surprising that oil prices have climbed to $150.
Today, international oil prices have gradually returned to the level of asset bubbles before the financial crisis, and the level of the real economy boom. However, the current economic situation in the countries of the world is still far behind the original, why can oil prices stand alone?
"The recent oil price increase this time was largely caused by the expected dollar depreciation." Professor Dong Xiucheng of the China University of Petroleum's School of Business Administration told this reporter that the quantitative easing policy of the United States made the devaluation of the dollar inevitable, and then pushed up the price in dollars. The international oil price. The increasing oil consumption in India and China is a rigid factor that drives the rise in oil prices.
“The financial attributes of 2010 are still the main factor that dominates the trend of crude oil prices, which weakens the influence of supply and demand fundamentals to a certain extent.†said Lu Bin, crude oil analyst at Zhuochuang.
It is worth noting that the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism is under pressure. With the continuous rise of international oil prices, the NDRC's decision on the price adjustment of domestic refined oil will become increasingly difficult.
“The current refined oil pricing mechanism is still difficult to avoid refining losses.†Lin Boqiang pointed out that if the international oil prices continue to rise next year, the test of the mechanism is very serious – the government will make a choice on whether to implement the mechanism fine-tuning.
He believes that the key to the reform of the pricing mechanism is to be market-oriented and be in line with international standards. However, taking into account the actual situation of the domestic people, the state should give a certain amount of subsidies.
“There are many ways to subsidize such as the change from producer subsidies to consumer subsidies, and certain refunds of oil products purchased by ordinary consumers. It is also possible to adjust product oil consumption taxes, and to collect less or not receive them. This will not happen. Distorting the market," Lin Boqiang said.
In his view, subsidizing PetroChina and Sinopec is not as good as subsidizing consumers. In this case, public opinion on price adjustment of refined oil is also much less stressful.
Dong Hsiu-cheng believes that the marketization of the pricing mechanism of domestic refined oil products is the trend of the times, including that the original method of starting to compress oil refining profits of more than 80 US dollars should be abolished in the future.
An informed source revealed that in November of the past, the National Development and Reform Commission and the industry experts have repeatedly finalized the detailed reform plan for refined oil pricing mechanism, and will discuss and submit the draft to the State Council for approval. Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission upset inflationary pressures to increase domestic oil prices, and the industry's interpretation of the introduction of new pricing mechanisms may not be far behind.
On December 22, the New York Mercantile Exchange's February delivery of light crude oil futures prices rose 66 cents to settle at $90.48 a barrel. This set a new high for oil prices in two years. At the time of writing yesterday, the price of oil in New York, although slightly lower in Asian electronic trading, remained steady above US$91/barrel. At this point, New York's oil prices have stood at more than 90 US dollars for a week, which means that the international oil price level has entered a new platform.
In this regard, a number of experts told this reporter that according to the current trend, the price of oil will almost certainly be broken one hundred next year. By then, the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism will undergo new tests and bear considerable pressure. Fine-tuning of the mechanism is imperative.
The oil price breaks through 100 is a matter of time. "The price of oil will go up next year. According to the current trend of rising $3 to $5 per dollar, then stopping and then continuing to rise, breaking 100 in the next year is almost certain." Xiamen University, China Energy Economics Research Professor Lin Boqiang, director of the center, said in an interview with this reporter yesterday.
He believes that the fact that international oil prices have not broken 100 this year has been considered "good luck" because high oil prices will still cause harm to the real economy and will adversely affect the global economic recovery.
"It is expected that at more than 100 US dollars at a certain time next year will be positive, and it is not ruled out that it will even exceed 110 US dollars at a certain point, but it will be difficult to say whether it will stand at more than 100 US dollars. After all, the average oil price this year is only 80 US dollars. The average price of oil next year may stand on the platform of 90 US dollars, but it still needs a process to really reach the platform of 100 US dollars." Lin Boqiang said.
According to the calculation of the Institute of Economics and Technology of China Petrochemical, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2010 was about 80 US dollars per barrel, which was significantly higher than the 62 US dollars per barrel in 2009.
The agency also predicts that the international crude oil price level in 2011 will have risen compared with 2010, and it is more likely to exceed 90 US dollars per barrel.
Earlier, a number of international agencies have predicted that the international crude oil price in 2011 may hit high again.
As the global economy is expected to have higher growth, the US Department of Energy recently raised its forecast for global crude oil prices in 2011. It is expected that the average WTI price will be US$86.08 per barrel, which is an increase of US$0.91 from the November forecast.
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, also said recently that the era of “low oil prices†has ended. It is very likely that the oil price will “break 100†again in 2011. The three major factors driving the rise in oil prices are the pace of economic recovery, the depreciation of the US dollar, and fundamental factors of supply and demand.
In addition, investment banks Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs also made predictions for the 2011 international oil price or breakthrough of 100 US dollars per barrel.
In Lin Boqiang's view, if the global economy recovers to the pre-crisis level in 2008, it is not surprising that oil prices have climbed to $150.
Today, international oil prices have gradually returned to the level of asset bubbles before the financial crisis, and the level of the real economy boom. However, the current economic situation in the countries of the world is still far behind the original, why can oil prices stand alone?
"The recent oil price increase this time was largely caused by the expected dollar depreciation." Professor Dong Xiucheng of the China University of Petroleum's School of Business Administration told this reporter that the quantitative easing policy of the United States made the devaluation of the dollar inevitable, and then pushed up the price in dollars. The international oil price. The increasing oil consumption in India and China is a rigid factor that drives the rise in oil prices.
“The financial attributes of 2010 are still the main factor that dominates the trend of crude oil prices, which weakens the influence of supply and demand fundamentals to a certain extent.†said Lu Bin, crude oil analyst at Zhuochuang.
It is worth noting that the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism is under pressure. With the continuous rise of international oil prices, the NDRC's decision on the price adjustment of domestic refined oil will become increasingly difficult.
“The current refined oil pricing mechanism is still difficult to avoid refining losses.†Lin Boqiang pointed out that if the international oil prices continue to rise next year, the test of the mechanism is very serious – the government will make a choice on whether to implement the mechanism fine-tuning.
He believes that the key to the reform of the pricing mechanism is to be market-oriented and be in line with international standards. However, taking into account the actual situation of the domestic people, the state should give a certain amount of subsidies.
“There are many ways to subsidize such as the change from producer subsidies to consumer subsidies, and certain refunds of oil products purchased by ordinary consumers. It is also possible to adjust product oil consumption taxes, and to collect less or not receive them. This will not happen. Distorting the market," Lin Boqiang said.
In his view, subsidizing PetroChina and Sinopec is not as good as subsidizing consumers. In this case, public opinion on price adjustment of refined oil is also much less stressful.
Dong Hsiu-cheng believes that the marketization of the pricing mechanism of domestic refined oil products is the trend of the times, including that the original method of starting to compress oil refining profits of more than 80 US dollars should be abolished in the future.
An informed source revealed that in November of the past, the National Development and Reform Commission and the industry experts have repeatedly finalized the detailed reform plan for refined oil pricing mechanism, and will discuss and submit the draft to the State Council for approval. Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission upset inflationary pressures to increase domestic oil prices, and the industry's interpretation of the introduction of new pricing mechanisms may not be far behind.
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