In 2014, equipment investment will be restarted and capacity will be expanded. According to the quarterly forecast report of the International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Organization (SEMI), investment in LED chip manufacturing equipment will rise by 17 to $1.2 billion next year after a continuous decline. Equipment investment will also present a new trend: the main force of equipment investment in the LED industry will be industry leaders and survivors, not new players. In 2010 and 2011, most of the capacity expansion was due to manufacturers' over-optimistic forecasts for the future. The LED market will grow to $20 billion by 2015.
Currently, the forecast for the LED packaging market is: after 2015, around $15 billion, the compound annual growth rate is lower than 5. The main reason for the downward revision is that LEDs are becoming more efficient in use (such as improving the light in the display). Conduit), LED package is more efficient, and the transition to the LED lighting market is slower. According to US market research firm StrategiesUnlimited, the average cost per kilogram of lumens has fallen from $13 in 2011 to less than $3.65 today. The number of LEDs used in television has dropped by a third, and many SSL fixtures use nearly half less LEDs than in previous years. The number of LEDs used in mobile devices and laptops has also declined. Cars are still a growing market, but cars account for only 10. of the total LED market. So many new capacity and new companies, as well as falling growth rates, have caused the price of LED packages to drop significantly in recent years. It has caused serious financial difficulties for many companies, especially newly established ones. The capacity utilization rate of the plant has declined globally, especially in China. Sales of MOCVD systems, the key production equipment for LED epitaxial wafers, plummeted. Leading MOCVD companies, such as Veeco and Aixtron, have tripled their sales in 2010, but in 2012 their revenues plummeted by nearly the same amount.
In 2014, Chinese companies will continue to purchase MOCVD equipment. The International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Group estimates that sales of MOCVD reactors will increase by 50 in 2014. In addition, many LED factories in China will be shut down or rebuilt for other uses due to market consolidation and the collapse of many uncompetitive companies. Sanan Optoelectronics with 120 MOCVD equipment and Dehao Runda with 90 reactors are working hard to increase capacity utilization and may emerge as important market players. Some medium-sized LED factories in China, such as the production capacity of Shengyang Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics, have almost been fully utilized, and they are optimistic about the future. In 2014, equipment spending by Chinese companies will account for 44% of the global total, up from 33 in 2013.
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