Integrate many factors to foresee the development trend of machine tool industry

1. The rapid growth of the machine tool industry in the world has declined. From a global perspective, Germany, Japan, and other countries are powerful countries in the machine tool industry and are also exporting countries in the machine tool industry. Judging from the situation in Japan, after entering 2010, the annual growth rate of the total orders of the Japanese machine tool industry maintained rapid growth; however, the rapid growth of orders continued to decline in April, May and June, mainly due to the total amount of overseas orders. Decline; From the absolute amount of overseas orders, there was also a slight increase in the chain in June; we believe that the stage of rapid growth of orders for the Japanese machine tool industry has reached its peak in April.

2. The growth rate of CNC machine tools in China continued to decline year-on-year in February. The machine tool industry operating data shows that the growth rate of CNC machine tools in China continued to show a declining trend in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45%, which is lower than the level of 50% in May. The growth rate of output for the second consecutive month declined.

Judging from the absolute value of output, the data machine tool output in June reached 20,300 units, which was higher than the 17,100 units in May. The monthly output of CNC machine tools reached a record high. It can be seen that the decline in the growth rate of CNC machine tools production in June was due to the base effect.

3. The digitization rate has been significantly improved. After entering January 2010, under the influence of factors such as economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, the output of CNC machine tools has been continuously expanding, which has led to a continuous increase in the numerical control rate of China's machine tools industry. In June, the numerical control rate of China's machine tool industry was 30%, significantly higher than 26% in May, indicating that the demand for CNC machine tools has increased at a faster rate, which is also consistent with the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry.

Although the numerical control rate of China's machine tool industry has improved, the overall numerical control rate remains low. Compared with the level of about 70% in developed countries, it still has a large room for improvement. It is believed that with China's "structural adjustment" efforts. With continuous increase, the numerical control rate of China's machine tools will increase significantly.

4. Downstream driving factors gradually weaken the automotive and construction machinery industry is the main downstream of the machine tool, but also the main driving force for the development of the machine tool industry. From the perspective of 2009, the growth rate of China's auto industry and construction machinery industry is relatively high; after entering 2010, the growth rate of China's auto production and construction machinery, although affected by a certain degree of decline, still maintains a positive growth, due to the base effect. The continuous increase in the total amount of automobiles and construction machinery has played an important role in the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the machine tool industry.

From the perspective of the auto industry, China's auto production growth rate was 18% in June from the same period of the previous year, which was lower than that in May. The year-on-year growth rate has declined for 5 consecutive months. From the perspective of the construction machinery industry, major auto manufacturers have recently expanded their production capacity, which lays a solid demand base for the improvement of the prosperity of the machine tool industry. We believe that in the long run, the automobile will be an important fulcrum for China's domestic demand. We are optimistic about the development of the automobile industry in the factory area, and we are optimistic about the automotive industry's leading role in the machine tool industry.

5. Steel prices have fallen slightly but are still at relatively high levels. Since China's steel prices reached a high point in July 2008, they continued to operate at low levels in 2009. After entering 2010, steel prices have risen slightly. Recently, major steel companies such as Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel have lowered the ex-factory prices of steel products, but compared with 2009, they are still at relatively high levels.

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