The price of natural rubber in the international market has rebounded since February this year and continues to rise. In July, all contracts for natural rubber futures of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange hit their highest prices in recent years. The recent contract closing price reached 189.8 yen per kilogram, which was the highest since February 1995.
The shortage of supply is the leading cause of this situation. In April and May, dry weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand and Indonesia led to global production cuts, and Hainan, the country's main natural rubber producing area, affected tapping. In June, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia affected normal tapping operations, causing production to fall again. According to relevant data, Thailand's rubber production this year fell by 10% due to the dry weather that began at the end of last year.
Inventory fell to historical lows is also an important factor. Since the beginning of this year, the global natural rubber inventory level has continued to decline. According to statistics of the Japan Rubber Trade Association, as of June 10, Japan's private warehouse raw rubber inventory totaled 10,600 tons, a decrease of 10% from 11,700 tons on May 31. This is the lowest point since 1963. On June 24th, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period accelerated, with a total of only 25,500 tons, which was an average of 80% lower than last year.
The sharp rise in international crude oil prices has also directly affected the natural rubber market. Since June, international crude oil prices have hit new highs. In the near future, the price of crude oil has exceeded the US$60/barrel mark, pushing the price of synthetic rubber up to 160 cents/kg. The rise in the price of synthetic rubber has led to a significant increase in the consumption of natural rubber as a substitute for it.
The shortage of supply is the leading cause of this situation. In April and May, dry weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand and Indonesia led to global production cuts, and Hainan, the country's main natural rubber producing area, affected tapping. In June, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia affected normal tapping operations, causing production to fall again. According to relevant data, Thailand's rubber production this year fell by 10% due to the dry weather that began at the end of last year.
Inventory fell to historical lows is also an important factor. Since the beginning of this year, the global natural rubber inventory level has continued to decline. According to statistics of the Japan Rubber Trade Association, as of June 10, Japan's private warehouse raw rubber inventory totaled 10,600 tons, a decrease of 10% from 11,700 tons on May 31. This is the lowest point since 1963. On June 24th, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period accelerated, with a total of only 25,500 tons, which was an average of 80% lower than last year.
The sharp rise in international crude oil prices has also directly affected the natural rubber market. Since June, international crude oil prices have hit new highs. In the near future, the price of crude oil has exceeded the US$60/barrel mark, pushing the price of synthetic rubber up to 160 cents/kg. The rise in the price of synthetic rubber has led to a significant increase in the consumption of natural rubber as a substitute for it.
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