While the global chemical industry is confidently welcoming the recovery, Paul Hodges, head of the UK-based e-chemical consulting company, has recently said that there is no indication that the global chemicals market will be out of the doldrums and return to its pre-crisis level.
Hodges believes that because there is a lack of real growth in demand and there is a change in China's demand, the global chemical industry may experience slight growth in 2010, but it is unlikely to recover fully. Hodges said: "In addition to China, we did not see any actual demand increase in the market. For example, in the US housing market, a new 2.2 million housing units were started each year before the crisis, and now it has dropped to 600,000 units; vehicle sales were originally annual. It has reached 17 million units and it has now dropped to 10 million."
Hodges pointed out that in 2010, European and American companies must learn how to survive in the turbulent chemical market environment, because ethylene produced from the Middle East using cheap ethane as raw material will have a strong impact on the global ethylene market. China's economic and financial prospects are also not optimistic. This means that the global chemical industry cannot rely on the Chinese market as an engine of growth in the recession.
However, in the long run, he is optimistic about the strong growth of the global chemical industry because the measures to achieve a low-carbon economy will increase the demand for polymers and innovative products. Hodges said: "The low-carbon economy will completely change our society. Although the annual sales of automobiles in the United States will be reduced to 10 to 12 million units, they will obtain greater fuel economy and a better fuel economy. Sex will consume less steel and glass, while the demand for polymers will increase. Housing and building insulation is another growing market."
Hodges believes that because there is a lack of real growth in demand and there is a change in China's demand, the global chemical industry may experience slight growth in 2010, but it is unlikely to recover fully. Hodges said: "In addition to China, we did not see any actual demand increase in the market. For example, in the US housing market, a new 2.2 million housing units were started each year before the crisis, and now it has dropped to 600,000 units; vehicle sales were originally annual. It has reached 17 million units and it has now dropped to 10 million."
Hodges pointed out that in 2010, European and American companies must learn how to survive in the turbulent chemical market environment, because ethylene produced from the Middle East using cheap ethane as raw material will have a strong impact on the global ethylene market. China's economic and financial prospects are also not optimistic. This means that the global chemical industry cannot rely on the Chinese market as an engine of growth in the recession.
However, in the long run, he is optimistic about the strong growth of the global chemical industry because the measures to achieve a low-carbon economy will increase the demand for polymers and innovative products. Hodges said: "The low-carbon economy will completely change our society. Although the annual sales of automobiles in the United States will be reduced to 10 to 12 million units, they will obtain greater fuel economy and a better fuel economy. Sex will consume less steel and glass, while the demand for polymers will increase. Housing and building insulation is another growing market."
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