Recently, many financial institutions have expressed their opinions on the "Circular on the Import Taxation of Refined Oils" promulgated by the Ministry of Finance.
Vertex Financial: We believe that the return of VAT will not have a substantial impact and will not help much in resolving the huge losses suffered by Chinese oil refining companies. The reason is: Based on the import prices since April, the impact of gasoline and diesel tax rebates is about 23 US dollars / barrel. Even if tax refunds are obtained, sales of imported gasoline and diesel in the domestic market will still generate losses of approximately US$12/barrel and US$27/barrel, respectively.
It is reported that the Ministry of Finance has already considered a plan to reduce the import value-added tax for crude oil by 75%. We believe that the plan will have a greater impact on Sinopec (even if it does not receive further government subsidies, its refining business may also achieve a break-even in 2008). However, this plan is not ideal because it cannot help PetroChina, which is also expanding its refining losses, but whose crude oil imports are relatively small. In view of the increase in industry costs and the implied long-term increase in oil prices, we believe that the Ministry of Finance should also consider raising the special oil proceeds threshold from US$40/bbl to US$60 to US$80/bbl.
China Merchants Securities: If these imports are fully cashed in the second quarter, according to the prices on April 14, the VAT of gasoline is 1,199 yuan/ton, diesel is 1,274 yuan/ton, and Sinopec can reduce losses by 2.5 billion yuan. PetroChina can Loss reduction was 1.87 billion yuan. The policy of importing value-added tax for imported oil products before returning reduced the losses of Sinopec and PetroChina’s domestic supply. However, we believe that the return of value-added tax on imported oil products is only the beginning of a series of policies. This policy only solves the problem of the loss of imported refined oil. What we need to solve next is how to subsidize the issue of refining losses. The policy of returning 75% of imported crude oil VAT on the first levy is expected to come out before the end of April. With the international oil price maintained at more than US$100/barrel, PetroChina’s operating pressures have gradually emerged (oil prices have not adjusted and special oil proceeds have increased), and huge capital expenditures have made free cash flow difficult. The increase in the threshold for special oil proceeds is also expected to be put on the agenda in the second quarter.
It is recommended that the country adjust domestic refined oil prices at an appropriate time. All of the above policies are focused on the supply side, and this approach is facing greater and greater challenges. For example, the recent increase in international diesel prices is far greater than gasoline. In addition to European demand factors, China’s imports in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year are also important factors. In the period of high international oil prices, it is necessary to make some adjustments to the consumption behavior of the demand side, and the best way is to adjust prices.
CICC: The implementation of the VAT levy policy for refined oil imports was mainly due to the loss of imports of gasoline and diesel from the two major groups to protect domestic supply, and the state made corresponding compensations. reduce. However, the profit from the tax rebate policy for PetroChina and Sinopec was approximately RMB 1.8 billion and RMB 2.4 billion respectively, with little impact. In the future, the country may indeed introduce other direct or indirect subsidy measures, such as the return of imported crude oil VAT, and the increase in special earning threshold. However, these measures have also reduced the possibility of the recent increase in refined oil prices. Regarding the specific impact of the policy on the performance of the two major groups, it is also necessary to look at the strength of the policy and the time of introduction.
Vertex Financial: We believe that the return of VAT will not have a substantial impact and will not help much in resolving the huge losses suffered by Chinese oil refining companies. The reason is: Based on the import prices since April, the impact of gasoline and diesel tax rebates is about 23 US dollars / barrel. Even if tax refunds are obtained, sales of imported gasoline and diesel in the domestic market will still generate losses of approximately US$12/barrel and US$27/barrel, respectively.
It is reported that the Ministry of Finance has already considered a plan to reduce the import value-added tax for crude oil by 75%. We believe that the plan will have a greater impact on Sinopec (even if it does not receive further government subsidies, its refining business may also achieve a break-even in 2008). However, this plan is not ideal because it cannot help PetroChina, which is also expanding its refining losses, but whose crude oil imports are relatively small. In view of the increase in industry costs and the implied long-term increase in oil prices, we believe that the Ministry of Finance should also consider raising the special oil proceeds threshold from US$40/bbl to US$60 to US$80/bbl.
China Merchants Securities: If these imports are fully cashed in the second quarter, according to the prices on April 14, the VAT of gasoline is 1,199 yuan/ton, diesel is 1,274 yuan/ton, and Sinopec can reduce losses by 2.5 billion yuan. PetroChina can Loss reduction was 1.87 billion yuan. The policy of importing value-added tax for imported oil products before returning reduced the losses of Sinopec and PetroChina’s domestic supply. However, we believe that the return of value-added tax on imported oil products is only the beginning of a series of policies. This policy only solves the problem of the loss of imported refined oil. What we need to solve next is how to subsidize the issue of refining losses. The policy of returning 75% of imported crude oil VAT on the first levy is expected to come out before the end of April. With the international oil price maintained at more than US$100/barrel, PetroChina’s operating pressures have gradually emerged (oil prices have not adjusted and special oil proceeds have increased), and huge capital expenditures have made free cash flow difficult. The increase in the threshold for special oil proceeds is also expected to be put on the agenda in the second quarter.
It is recommended that the country adjust domestic refined oil prices at an appropriate time. All of the above policies are focused on the supply side, and this approach is facing greater and greater challenges. For example, the recent increase in international diesel prices is far greater than gasoline. In addition to European demand factors, China’s imports in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year are also important factors. In the period of high international oil prices, it is necessary to make some adjustments to the consumption behavior of the demand side, and the best way is to adjust prices.
CICC: The implementation of the VAT levy policy for refined oil imports was mainly due to the loss of imports of gasoline and diesel from the two major groups to protect domestic supply, and the state made corresponding compensations. reduce. However, the profit from the tax rebate policy for PetroChina and Sinopec was approximately RMB 1.8 billion and RMB 2.4 billion respectively, with little impact. In the future, the country may indeed introduce other direct or indirect subsidy measures, such as the return of imported crude oil VAT, and the increase in special earning threshold. However, these measures have also reduced the possibility of the recent increase in refined oil prices. Regarding the specific impact of the policy on the performance of the two major groups, it is also necessary to look at the strength of the policy and the time of introduction.
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