The recent domestic commodity market has generally fallen, and Hujiao is the number one drop in the category. After the Shanghai rubber futures price hit a record high since February 9, the cumulative loss of the main 1109 contract has reached 27% so far; the second largest drop in the commodity market is cotton, which has fallen by more than 24%. Last year was still the leader, showing why the rubber market in the “rubber†nature was so eye-popping in the first half of this year? We believe that with the high plastic prices on the dynamic adjustment of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, as well as the macro-level effect of the tightening of quantitative easing policies at home and abroad, Hujiao’s mid-term decline will continue.
This year, the global rubber supply is expected to increase significantly
According to the International Rubber Research Organization’s earlier forecast this year, the world's natural rubber production was 10.97 million tons, and the consumption was 11.15 million tons. In 2010, the global natural rubber output was 10.27 million tons, and the consumption was 10.44 million tons. The rubber production and consumption growth predicted by the International Rubber Organization this year is basically at the level of 700,000 tons, but in fact this year's global supply fear will increase significantly on the basis of last year.
Thailand is the world’s largest rubber producer and exporter. Prior to this, the Ministry of Agriculture stated that it plans to expand the planting area of ​​128,000 hectares this year. Since 2004, it has expanded an area of ​​160,000 hectares. At present, the rubber plantation area in Thailand is 1.9 million hectares. And plans to export 2.9 million tons of rubber this year, higher than last year's 2.7 million tons. Indonesia Rubber Association data show that Indonesia, the world’s second-largest producer, plans to produce 3.08 million tons of rubber this year, which is 10% higher than the 2.8 million tons in 2010. The Malaysian Rubber Bureau said that it expects rubber production this year will increase from 939,000 tons in 2010 to 1 million tons. China's natural rubber production this year is expected to increase to 680,000 tons, compared to 647,000 tons last year. In the current era of global high rubber prices, the enthusiasm of plastic tappers has been greatly improved, and the impact of extreme weather on normal tapping has been eliminated. This year, the slow increase in global supply compared with the previous two years will be significantly improved.
Domestic and foreign tire market is not equal to cold and hot
Although the price of natural rubber was raging in 2010, we saw the world-famous tire company still handing over the brilliant annual report, its sales income and profits increased significantly year-on-year, and tire giants generally continue to be optimistic about the 2011 tire market. The increase in raw material costs has not hindered the revenue growth of large overseas tire companies. Its inherent long-term procurement model has an absolute advantage in the raw material cost procurement with Chinese companies in the natural rubber price bull market. Large-scale tire companies have enough room for product premiums, and their main production of high-end tires has not been constrained by higher finished product prices. Instead, with the economic recovery in countries such as Europe and the United States, tire sales have gradually recovered.
Last year, the total output of tires in China reached 770 million, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; and in the first quarter of this year, China's tire production was 169 million, an increase of only 6.9% over the same period of last year. Although China's tire market capacity expansion this year is still rapid, but by the rising cost of raw materials and rapid appreciation of the renminbi on the impact of tire exports, the first quarter of this year, China's tire capacity utilization has not been fully released. At present, the sales pace of domestic tire companies has slowed down significantly since March, and the step-down decline in rubber prices has added to the prudent purchase mentality of tire companies, and buying herding stocks will have a negative impact on medium-term rubber prices.
We expect this year's tire production and sales situation to present a situation of “internal cold and external heatâ€. It is due to the difference in fundamental performance at home and abroad, which in turn is transmitted to the upstream. The performance of the domestic rubber market is always upside down on the external disk, while domestic The weakness of consumption start-up has become a key point in the fundamental turning point.
The complicated macro situation suppresses the commodity market
The Fed’s second-quantity easing policy ended at the end of June this year, and the implementation of a new round of quantitative easing measures may be very small. This also means that the longest-lasting loose monetary environment since the 2008 economic crisis began to improve in the second half of this year. Last month, the European Central Bank announced a rate hike of 25 basis points, the first time since the economic crisis in 2008 to raise interest rates. Due to the obvious recovery of the euro-nuclear economy and the rise of inflationary pressures, the Eurozone’s attitude toward easing monetary policy has changed, and the strong performance of the euro’s previous period has advanced overdrafts for positive reasons, and continues to push up new and high pressures. By comparison, since January this year, the U.S. dollar index has ended its four-month unilateral decline.
The central bank recently stated that the current domestic economic growth and employment situation is better, and stabilizing prices and managing inflation expectations are the top priorities. China has raised deposit reserves 10 times since last year and raised interest rates four times. The central bank’s monetary policy stance has shifted from “moderately loose†to “stability-rewarding,†which is enough to impose a significant constraint on the growth of the real economy and the cumulative effect of monetary tightening policies. In the capital market and the real economy began to show.
In addition, the topic of one-off appreciation of the renminbi has recently been heated up. As can be seen from the chart below, the cumulative appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar since the implementation of the exchange rate reform in 2005 was close to 20%, and the price of imported renminbi renminbi was also compared from 2005. 10.74 dropped to 7.75. In recent years, the number of imported bulk commodities in China has been increasing year by year. On the one hand, it has expanded China's consumption, and on the other hand has indirectly depressed the price of commodities denominated in dollars. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic rubber market has been particularly severely reversed. In the future, the appreciation of the people will accelerate, and it is more likely that it will impact the market price of imported plastics in China.
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