How far is the conventional car outage schedule started?

Relevant statistics show that there are currently six countries that have put forward a clear timetable for the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles. In the near future, China will also join this ranks.

Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed at the 2017 China Automotive Industry Development (Telda) International Forum recently that the global automotive industry is accelerating its transformation towards intelligence and electrification, seizing a new round of commanding heights, and grasping industrial development trends and opportunities. China has started the research on the stoppage of the sale of traditional energy vehicles, which also means that the withdrawal of fuel vehicles in the Chinese market will no longer be in sight.

In fact, this news has long been a sign. As early as last year's State Council executive meeting, it was pointed out that "in industries with serious overcapacity such as steel, coal, and electrolytic aluminum, local production capacity must not be increased in any way. In principle, the establishment of a new traditional fuel vehicle production enterprise will no longer be approved." In June this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of New Passenger Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Soliciting Opinions), and established a long-term mechanism for the management of energy-saving and new energy vehicles through the use of energy consumption points. Guide the transformation of traditional passenger vehicle companies to new energy vehicles. So, how far are we from the era of fuel-free cars?

Fully launch new energy car market competition

In recent years, in the face of increasingly severe environmental challenges such as energy shortages, environmental pollution, and traffic congestion, the world's major auto-producing countries have adopted new energy vehicles as an important strategy and response method, and have vigorously promoted the development and industrialization of related technologies. China In the field of new energy vehicles, the layout is even more in the forefront of the world. The data shows that in 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 500,000 vehicles, and the cumulative total number of new energy vehicles exceeded 1 million, accounting for 50% of the world's total.

Xin Guobin stated that the technological innovation of enterprises in the new energy automobile industry in China is proceeding in an orderly manner, the research and development level of the vehicle continues to increase, and the recognition of the Chinese brand automobile market has increased significantly. In some market segments, it has been able to compete with international brands on the same platform. In terms of automobiles, companies also have active layouts, and products with ancillary value functions and network-linked features have entered the market on a large scale.

In Xin Guobin's view, the future of the automotive industry will have dramatic changes and accelerate the transition: automotive products will accelerate development in the direction of low-carbon, electric, and intelligent vehicles. Autos are transforming from simple transportation to large-scale mobile intelligent terminals; the Internet is deeply integrated with automobiles. The proportion of aging and new generation users continues to increase. Intelligent transportation, shared travel, and personalized services have become important directions; new technology companies have entered the industry in large scale, and traditional enterprises and auto industries have been competing and developing, and global industrial ecology is being reconstructed.

"Some countries have set a timetable for stopping the production and sales of conventional energy vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also started relevant research and will also formulate a timetable for China with related departments. These measures will surely promote the development of the automobile industry in China. Change." Xin Guobin said.

The deputy director of the Department of High-tech Development and Industrialization of the Ministry of Science and Technology continued to say that new energy vehicles have become the focus of the global auto industry technology competition. The United States, Europe, Japan and other countries have proposed industrial upgrading strategies at the national level to accelerate the research and development of new energy vehicles. Progress has been actively promoted by industrial upgrading and integration development. International scientific and technological cooperation has become more and more close. Some multinational companies have continued to exert their efforts and have fully competed in the new energy automobile market.

Car prices have started to follow up

Although fuel vehicles are still in absolute dominance in the current automobile market, from now on, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles from the historical stage will be the trend of the times, and it will also be the problem that car manufacturers and consumers have to face.

Some car companies have also begun to follow up. In July this year, Volvo Car Group stated that it will no longer launch new fuel models from 2019. The new models are either all-electric vehicles or hybrid vehicles. Toyota Motor has also announced that it will stop selling petrol cars in 2050. In the future, Toyota will gradually promote hybrid cars, fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles. At this year's Frankfurt International Motor Show, Volkswagen Group announced that by 2030, the entire Volkswagen Group's entire vehicle lineup will be electrified, and the Group’s brands and more than 300 models covering all markets will be launched at least by then. An electric version.

Under such circumstances, the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles does not seem to be a dream. Xu Xiangyang, professor of the School of Transportation Science and Engineering at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, believes that electrification is a major trend in the development of the automobile industry. However, by 2030, whether the electrification process can completely replace the internal combustion engine will have great uncertainty, depending on the battery. The extent of technology development in 2030. In the field of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, diesel locomotives may be replaced by electric vehicles, but some areas may not be able to achieve. Xin Guobin said that from now until 2025, it should be the most dramatic change in the automobile industry. Traditional car energy-saving and emission-reduction requirements are getting higher and higher, and the accelerated development of new energy vehicles will require more and more technical requirements. It will have a huge impact on the entire industry. Enterprises must deeply understand this trend, adjust their strategies in a timely manner, and make clear development plans.

Turn from quantity lead to quality win

If traditional fuel vehicles exit the auto market, can new energy vehicles smoothly “take over”? In fact, despite the impressive results, the new energy automobile industry in China is still in a critical period, and the problems faced by new energy vehicles are still very prominent. Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Development of the Ministry of Finance, believes that at present, China's new energy automotive industry is still facing new and old issues such as lack of innovation capacity, backward power battery core technologies, insufficient construction of charging facilities, and excessive industrial structure. However, under the circumstances that the relevant supporting policies continue to degrade and quit, the ability of the industry to achieve sustainable development has not yet been fully formed.

Song Qiuling said that the original intention of the new energy vehicle consumption subsidy policy is to cultivate the market effectively, but the long-term implementation of consumer subsidies, the government not only bears the burden, the company is also prone to suffering from dependence, the industry is prone to low levels of blind expansion, the formation of excess capacity . New energy auto companies must enhance their awareness of the crisis and do a good job in research and development, and they must turn from quantity leadership to quality success.

It is worth mentioning that the double-credit policy that has been hotly debated in the industry will also be officially released in the near future.

“In order to establish a long-term mechanism for the traditional car refueling, we have worked with relevant departments to formulate a double-credit management method, which will soon be implemented soon. Each company shall, in accordance with the assessment requirements, strive to improve the traditional car energy-saving level and vigorously develop new energy vehicles.” Xin Guobin said.