"Now the ex-factory price of methanol is 2,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is 3,500 yuan, up by 300 yuan and 350 yuan respectively from the end of July, and shipments are relatively smooth." Shaanxi Suihua Group Distribution and Marketing Department Deputy Minister Li Shaochun was pleased to report in an interview with reporters last week. Due to the increase in the number of companies that have ceased production and the decrease in supply, since August, the domestic alcohol ether market has changed its pattern of declining prices in the previous period, and it has gone through a wave of strong rally.
At present, the ex-factory price of methanol in the northwestern region has generally risen to 1,900-2,200 yuan, the ex-factory price of methanol in central China has risen to 2,050-2,350 yuan, and the ex-factory price of methanol in the northeast, north, south, southwest, and east China has also increased by 150-300 yuan. Supported by the rising price of methanol, the national ex-factory price of dimethyl ether also rose by 250-380 yuan compared with the end of July. Among them, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in the northwest region is 3,200-3,400 yuan, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether of some manufacturers with convenient transportation (such as Suihua Group) is increased to 3,500 yuan, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in central China is 3,300-3,550 yuan, in East China and South China. The highest ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in the region even exceeded 3,700 yuan, close to the highest level in the year. Li Shaochun believes that the decrease in supply and the oversupply of supply oversupply are the main reasons for the rebound in alcohol ether prices.
First of all, gas-headed enterprises cut production on a large-scale basis and stopped production, reducing domestic methanol supply. Affected by the country's upward adjustment of natural gas prices, the cost of gas head methanol enterprises increased suddenly and was affected by the shortage of natural gas. Production and operation conditions continued to deteriorate, and more than 60% of gas head methanol companies were forced to cut production or stop production. At present, the gas methanol production capacity of the gas head accounts for approximately 32% of the total methanol production capacity in the country. Gas-to-air methanol companies have reduced their production and production by a large area, and have reduced the production of methanol by 160,000 to 200,000 tons per month.
Second, the price of coal in coal heads was upside down, and there was an increase in production cuts and production cuts. Since the domestic domestic methanol ex-factory price in the early period was between 1800 and 2,200 yuan, this price was actually lower than the cost of more than 90% of methanol companies. At present, about 1/3 of all-alcoholic enterprises in the country have stopped production due to inversion of chemical fertilizers and methanol prices, and even several large-scale modernized coal-top methanol enterprises have been newly built in recent years, such as Xianyang Chemical Industry 600,000 tons/year and Zhongyuan Dahua 500,000. Tons/year, Yulin Co., Ltd. Yulin Chemical 600,000 tons/year and other devices were also forced to shut down and overhaul, which resulted in the reduction of the monthly production of coalhead methanol by more than 300,000 tons.
Once again, the coking plant's operating rate was low, and the production of methanol from coke oven gas dropped sharply. The methanol production capacity of coke oven gas accounts for approximately 4.7% of the total methanol production capacity in China. As the operating rate of iron and steel enterprises continues to decline, this year, the loss of the coke industry in China continues to expand, the operating rate continues to decline, and the entire coke industry operating rate is less than 40%. The coke oven-to-coal methanol plant of the supporting construction will be “no rice pots†and the monthly production of methanol will be reduced by about 70,000 tons.
Finally, there was a decrease in imported methanol. Although the Ministry of Commerce failed to provide anti-dumping rulings on imports of methanol originating in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, New Zealand and other countries before June 24th, as expected by Chinese companies, on the one hand, prolonging the investigation of anti-dumping investigations has a certain The deterrent effect has prevented it from rushing to export methanol to China at a low price so as to avoid incurring anti-dumping sanctions. On the other hand, Chinese companies and the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association have successively submitted letters stating the impact of foreign low-priced methanol on Chinese methanol companies and industries and the substantial damages caused, and called on the country to give a positive methanol anti-dumping ruling as soon as possible. In countries such as Iran and Oman, which have not included anti-dumping investigations on methanol, restrictions have also been adopted. The Chinese government’s flexible policies, strong reflections from companies and industry associations have caused the Middle East countries to converge on the dumping of methanol in China. In July, the import of methanol was significantly reduced, which eased the contradiction of domestic methanol supply exceeding demand.
While the supply of methanol decreased, the domestic demand for methanol did not decrease. At present, the methanol traditional consumer industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, pesticides, solvents, methyl tert-butyl ether, etc. have obviously recovered. Although the operating rate is not high, the scale is continuously expanding, and the absolute demand for methanol is magnified; the methanol consumption is increased. The total amount of 25% methanol fuel area, in more and more provinces and cities introduced the provincial methanol fuel standards and pilot promotion of methanol gasoline, the demand for methanol is quietly heating up.
In addition, in the dimethyl ether field, another major consumer market for methanol, due to the joint rectification by the AQSIQ and other four departments, the industry's operating rate has dropped sharply to about 20%, and the supply has suddenly decreased, stimulating its prices to rise. Even so, the current price of dimethyl ether is still more than 1000 yuan lower than that of liquefied petroleum gas. This means that every liquefied gas blended with 10% of dimethyl ether can make more than 200 yuan profit, and blending 25% can make more than 500 yuan profit. Suffered by huge profits, the role of DME "blocking orders" is greatly reduced. According to the reporter’s understanding, in addition to the immediate effects of the “DME DME Order†received by a few provinces and cities in Guangdong and Shanghai, the dimethyl ether market in most provinces and cities across the country experienced a short period of cooling in July. It began to heat up again. DME producers also actively explored markets such as aerosols and refrigerants other than civilian fuels, and succeeded in boosting the price of dimethyl ether.
However, the industry is not optimistic about the late trend of the alcohol ether market. Because domestic methanol production capacity has exceeded 50%, DME production capacity is over 2/3, and new production capacity is still released. In the case of severe excess production capacity, each rebound is difficult to sustain. Once the cost of alcohol ethers exceeds the cost and continues, many production cut-off enterprises will increase the equipment load or start production facilities, so that the production of alcohol ethers will increase rapidly, and the market will oversupply again, suppressing the price downwards.
Li Shaochun predicts that if domestic coal, gas, water, electricity, and transportation prices do not change significantly in the later period, the domestic methanol ex-factory price will be 1900 to 2500 yuan for a long period of time, and the dimethyl ether ex-factory price may operate in the region of 3,000 to 3,800 yuan. The status of low-profit management will continue for 2 to 3 years.
At present, the ex-factory price of methanol in the northwestern region has generally risen to 1,900-2,200 yuan, the ex-factory price of methanol in central China has risen to 2,050-2,350 yuan, and the ex-factory price of methanol in the northeast, north, south, southwest, and east China has also increased by 150-300 yuan. Supported by the rising price of methanol, the national ex-factory price of dimethyl ether also rose by 250-380 yuan compared with the end of July. Among them, the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in the northwest region is 3,200-3,400 yuan, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether of some manufacturers with convenient transportation (such as Suihua Group) is increased to 3,500 yuan, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in central China is 3,300-3,550 yuan, in East China and South China. The highest ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in the region even exceeded 3,700 yuan, close to the highest level in the year. Li Shaochun believes that the decrease in supply and the oversupply of supply oversupply are the main reasons for the rebound in alcohol ether prices.
First of all, gas-headed enterprises cut production on a large-scale basis and stopped production, reducing domestic methanol supply. Affected by the country's upward adjustment of natural gas prices, the cost of gas head methanol enterprises increased suddenly and was affected by the shortage of natural gas. Production and operation conditions continued to deteriorate, and more than 60% of gas head methanol companies were forced to cut production or stop production. At present, the gas methanol production capacity of the gas head accounts for approximately 32% of the total methanol production capacity in the country. Gas-to-air methanol companies have reduced their production and production by a large area, and have reduced the production of methanol by 160,000 to 200,000 tons per month.
Second, the price of coal in coal heads was upside down, and there was an increase in production cuts and production cuts. Since the domestic domestic methanol ex-factory price in the early period was between 1800 and 2,200 yuan, this price was actually lower than the cost of more than 90% of methanol companies. At present, about 1/3 of all-alcoholic enterprises in the country have stopped production due to inversion of chemical fertilizers and methanol prices, and even several large-scale modernized coal-top methanol enterprises have been newly built in recent years, such as Xianyang Chemical Industry 600,000 tons/year and Zhongyuan Dahua 500,000. Tons/year, Yulin Co., Ltd. Yulin Chemical 600,000 tons/year and other devices were also forced to shut down and overhaul, which resulted in the reduction of the monthly production of coalhead methanol by more than 300,000 tons.
Once again, the coking plant's operating rate was low, and the production of methanol from coke oven gas dropped sharply. The methanol production capacity of coke oven gas accounts for approximately 4.7% of the total methanol production capacity in China. As the operating rate of iron and steel enterprises continues to decline, this year, the loss of the coke industry in China continues to expand, the operating rate continues to decline, and the entire coke industry operating rate is less than 40%. The coke oven-to-coal methanol plant of the supporting construction will be “no rice pots†and the monthly production of methanol will be reduced by about 70,000 tons.
Finally, there was a decrease in imported methanol. Although the Ministry of Commerce failed to provide anti-dumping rulings on imports of methanol originating in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, New Zealand and other countries before June 24th, as expected by Chinese companies, on the one hand, prolonging the investigation of anti-dumping investigations has a certain The deterrent effect has prevented it from rushing to export methanol to China at a low price so as to avoid incurring anti-dumping sanctions. On the other hand, Chinese companies and the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association have successively submitted letters stating the impact of foreign low-priced methanol on Chinese methanol companies and industries and the substantial damages caused, and called on the country to give a positive methanol anti-dumping ruling as soon as possible. In countries such as Iran and Oman, which have not included anti-dumping investigations on methanol, restrictions have also been adopted. The Chinese government’s flexible policies, strong reflections from companies and industry associations have caused the Middle East countries to converge on the dumping of methanol in China. In July, the import of methanol was significantly reduced, which eased the contradiction of domestic methanol supply exceeding demand.
While the supply of methanol decreased, the domestic demand for methanol did not decrease. At present, the methanol traditional consumer industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, pesticides, solvents, methyl tert-butyl ether, etc. have obviously recovered. Although the operating rate is not high, the scale is continuously expanding, and the absolute demand for methanol is magnified; the methanol consumption is increased. The total amount of 25% methanol fuel area, in more and more provinces and cities introduced the provincial methanol fuel standards and pilot promotion of methanol gasoline, the demand for methanol is quietly heating up.
In addition, in the dimethyl ether field, another major consumer market for methanol, due to the joint rectification by the AQSIQ and other four departments, the industry's operating rate has dropped sharply to about 20%, and the supply has suddenly decreased, stimulating its prices to rise. Even so, the current price of dimethyl ether is still more than 1000 yuan lower than that of liquefied petroleum gas. This means that every liquefied gas blended with 10% of dimethyl ether can make more than 200 yuan profit, and blending 25% can make more than 500 yuan profit. Suffered by huge profits, the role of DME "blocking orders" is greatly reduced. According to the reporter’s understanding, in addition to the immediate effects of the “DME DME Order†received by a few provinces and cities in Guangdong and Shanghai, the dimethyl ether market in most provinces and cities across the country experienced a short period of cooling in July. It began to heat up again. DME producers also actively explored markets such as aerosols and refrigerants other than civilian fuels, and succeeded in boosting the price of dimethyl ether.
However, the industry is not optimistic about the late trend of the alcohol ether market. Because domestic methanol production capacity has exceeded 50%, DME production capacity is over 2/3, and new production capacity is still released. In the case of severe excess production capacity, each rebound is difficult to sustain. Once the cost of alcohol ethers exceeds the cost and continues, many production cut-off enterprises will increase the equipment load or start production facilities, so that the production of alcohol ethers will increase rapidly, and the market will oversupply again, suppressing the price downwards.
Li Shaochun predicts that if domestic coal, gas, water, electricity, and transportation prices do not change significantly in the later period, the domestic methanol ex-factory price will be 1900 to 2500 yuan for a long period of time, and the dimethyl ether ex-factory price may operate in the region of 3,000 to 3,800 yuan. The status of low-profit management will continue for 2 to 3 years.
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